WIND 2020 Conference

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2016
CADO Admin
/ Categories: Hurricanes, Hurricanes

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2016

Updated: 7/1/2016

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Updated  1 July 2016

(Including Alex, Bonnie, Colin and Danielle)

  • Named Storms (NS)  15 
  • Named Storm Days (NSD) 55 
  • Hurricanes (H) 6
  • Hurricane Days (HD) 21 
  • Major Hurricanes (MH) 2 
  • Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 4 


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 50% (average for last century is 52%) 

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 30% (average for last century is 31%) 

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 29% (average for last century is 30%) 

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W) 1) 40% (average for last century is 42%)

 

Forthcoming Updated Forecasts of 2016 Hurricane Activity
We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Wednesday 1 June, Friday 1 July, and Wednesday 3 August. We will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the climatological peak of the 32 season from August-October. A verification and discussion of all 2016 forecasts will be issued in late November 2016. All of these forecasts will be available on our website at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts 

The above is from the report.  A link to the full report is listed below.

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