Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2017
Updated June 1, 2017
We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity. The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have diminished somewhat, and portions of the tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past two months. While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2017
Issue Date June 1, 2017
- Named Storms (NS) - 14
- Named Storm Days (NSD) - 60
- Hurricanes (H) - 6
- Hurricane Days (HD) - 25
- Major Hurricanes (MH) - 2
- Major Hurricane Days (MHD) - 5
* The above includes TC Arlene which formed prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
- Entire U.S. coastline - 55% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 33% (average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 32% (average for last century is 30%)
Click here to read the full report and the source of the information above.