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NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.


Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281910
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb (27.75 inches).


CSU June 2,2022 Hurricane Season Update

Quote from updated Forecast

"We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022. We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."


AccuWeather's 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

"How will this season rank in terms of intensity? How many major hurricanes are forecast to form? And how many direct impacts to U.S. soil will there be? AccuWeather's top experts answer all of those questions and more.

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather senior editor

Published Mar. 30, 2022 10:59 AM CDT"

 

The above is from the Forecast, the photo is from the CADO photo Gallery, 


NOAA updated 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

August 6, 2020 - Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May.


EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 


Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

Source: North Carolina Department of Insurance

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...


NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’

Updated August 10, 2023

Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity with today’s update. Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.


Hurricane Ian Insurance Claims

Updated 12/19

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) has reported that the Total Estimated Insured Losses per data as of 12/7/2022 is $10,506,624,150 and the total claims of 657,609 with 61.9% reported closed.

The information above is from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) website.

"OIR captures data in its efforts to evaluate catastrophe claims and compels all insurers to report data as of each required reporting date, per section 624.307, Florida Statutes. This aggregate information is compiled from claims data filed by insurers. It has not been audited or independently verified. Companies were required to begin submitting data on September 30, 2022, and the data covers all claims based on filings received by OIR to date. "

 

photo from the CADO Gallery,  not Ian Damage


Citizens Updates Hurricane Ian Estimates

Citizens Press Release

November 15, 2022 - Tallahassee

Citizens Property Insurance Corporation has updated its Hurricane Ian estimates to reflect additional costs expected from litigation and other claims-related expenses.

Citizens estimates that direct losses and loss adjustment expenses will total $3.8 billion from the Category 4 storm that slammed into Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022. This represents a significant increase over the preliminary estimate of $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion, which was based strictly on the results of a single hurricane model.


First tropical wave of the 2022 Season

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 8 2022

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the season has emerged off the W coast of Africa this morning. It is currently located along 14W S of 10N this morning, moving W at 10 kts. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing well S of the Cabo Verde Islands.


Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of slowing

NOAA's 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is well underway, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for an above-average hurricane season, according to the annual mid-season update issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. 

The latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook includes the 5 named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest 5th named storm on record.


CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research

CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June.

"We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." (as of 3 June 2021)

Source of the above: CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research 


Near- or below-normal 2021 hurricane season predicted for the Central Pacific

Source: NOAA

There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season. 


CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

"Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their forecast and now predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2020, citing very warm sea surface temperatures and very low wind shear in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures averaged over the past month are at their fourth-highest levels since 1982, trailing only the very active Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005, 2010 and 2017. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is necessary for hurricane development."


Insurers ache for qualified inspectors after U.S. hurricanes

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Insurers are scrambling to find inspectors in Texas and Florida after fierce hurricanes battered the states one after the other, causing tens of billions of dollars' worth of property damage in less than two weeks.


Although insurers maintain some number of inspectors, known as claims adjusters, across the U.S. year-round, they must redeploy staff from other areas or hire contract workers to fill gaps when catastrophes like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma strike. The speed with which they can do so is critical to residents and business owners awaiting insurance payments.


Hawaii and Hurricanes

“The last hurricane that hit Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, and Kauai took the brunt of the damage,” said Insurance Commissioner Gordon Ito. “Hurricane Iniki caused almost $2 billion in damages, which is about $3 billion in today’s dollars. It can take just one major storm to cause severe property damage, and we urge you to be prepared.”


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FAQ

Listed below are some links to other blog post and articles on other sites.

Dimechimes ClaimSmentor Adjuster Information Blog 
 Organization Chart for the Claims Handling Blame Game- A Humorous Graph -A Serious Look at Claim Bad Faith Issues
 On the page the above link takes you to you will find links to some of her other articles at the end of the above article.
  

WHAT MAKES A GREAT CAT ADJUSTER?
Article written by John Postava
On the Ryze Claim Solutions webite

You can find additional post from John and Dimechimes in the CADO forums, they have made many post over the years contributing to the community by sharing their knowledge and experiance.

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