Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020

Source: NOAA

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From the NOAA Forecast;

"May 21, 2020An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

 

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

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We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 

Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary

Source: National Hurricane Center

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NHC is the source of the info below

Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone activity during October was slightly above normal for the Atlantic basin. Five named storms formed during the month and one of them became a hurricane. Another hurricane, Lorenzo, carried over from the month of September. One tropical depression also formed and failed to strengthen. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane forms in the basin in October about every third year.

NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season

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"August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway."

 

Colorado State's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

Source: Colorado State University

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"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 5 August 2019)"

The above is an excerpt from the Forecast by Colorado State University.

NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued: 23 May 2019

CADO Admin 0
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

CADO Admin 0

"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Source: AccuWeather

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...

"After an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2018, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting 2019 to result in a near- to slightly above-normal season with 12 to 14 storms.

Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes and two to four are forecast to become major hurricanes."

...

Photo from the CADO Gallery

Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

Source: North Carolina Department of Insurance

CADO Admin 0

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

From Wikipedia

CADO Admin 0

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. 

Florida Hurricane Michael Claims Data

Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation

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The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation is reporting a total of 78,688 claims as of October 18, 2018 with Total Estimated Insured Losses at $835,868,692.  See the report for additional details.

CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Source: Colorado State University

CADO Admin 0
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months and is now colder than normal. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

The above is from the article.  Click the title to read more.

 

 

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

CADO Admin 0

We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Hurricane Irma recovery slowed by shortages of insurance adjusters, contractors

Source: sun-sentinel.com

CADO Admin 0

"Much of the post-Irma frustration stemmed from dealing with catastrophe adjusters quickly trained and supervised under the governor’s Sept. 4 emergency authorization allowing suspension of normal credentialing requirements, Dominguez said.

One such adjuster was dispatched to an English-speaker’s home despite not knowing how to speak English, Dominguez said.

After Hurricane Harvey, “the cream of the crop” of independent insurance adjusters headed to Texas to work for insurance companies there, Papy said. Then, when Irma looked likely to strike Florida, insurers here were forced to compete to secure services from adjusters who didn’t go to Texas." (from the article)

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