http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-10-06-winter-elnino_x.htm

 

El Nino to persist until spring 2007, federal scientists report

Updated 10/6/2006 4:53 PM ET

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) — El Nino, a climate pattern that can wreak havoc around the world, will stay at least until spring 2007, a monthly report by the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday…

 

Will he be in play come June 2007?

 

Other links on El Nino and his sister:

 

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/basics/wnino0.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2006-10-03-gray-hurricane-season_x.htm

 

Hurricane experts predict 1 more Atlantic hurricane; cite El Niño for quiet year

 

Updated 10/3/2006 1:22 PM ET

 

In the past two years alone, the researchers said, 13 major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin, and seven struck the U.S. coast, including the devastating Hurricane Katrina. By contrast, between 1995 and 2003, only three major hurricanes hit land…

Can El Nino’s come in back to back years?

Wish I could just revise my reports and pretend like I wasn't dead wrong in the first place.  Or blame it on El Nino (yes, that's the ticket).  This year will go down as one of Dr. Gray's least accurate predictions, despite the revisions.  For those who are new to the field, take heed.  Most years are predicted to be worse than they actually turn out to be.  Compound this with the fact that a hurricane must make landfall in a heavily populated area to send lots of adjusters out on the road, and you may understand why some have been saying that this is not a get-rich scheme. 

El Nino can create a lot of work some years (and where better to spend the winter than Los Angeles except maybe Honolulu), but Florida policyholders are pikers in terms of litigation compared to coastal Californians. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20061010/sc_space/africanduststormsstiflehurricanesstudysuggests

 

African Dust Storms Stifle Hurricanes, Study Suggests

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-11-07-hurricane-season_x.htm

 

Stephen Leatherman of the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University in Miami. "The high cycle of Atlantic hurricane activity is probably going to go for another 20 years."

So what is our predictions on the 2007 season, will it be boom or bust.  Just curious of the thoughts of adjusters who have been around along time.

I think that for the next five years we will have 5 cat fives per year due to decreased dust activity in the Sahara like we have never seen before. In addition, the high we saw sitting in the middle of the Atlantic will not reform incoming years. This high was responsible for catching the tropical waves and steering them north -northeast away from the US east coast as they came off the African coast. El Nino will totally dissipate by mid February resulting in a colder than normal spring for the next 5 years. The colder than normal spring seasons will result in above normal hail and tornado activity February - June. I predict we will see the first CAT 5 hit Hilton Head on June 15.

I just got my adjuster license. Can you tell me what I need to do next?

[QUOTE]cantonking wrote

I just got my adjuster license. Can you tell me what I need to do next?

[/QUOTE]

 

Get a rain gauge, no wait, a shingle gauge, no wait, maybe that's a 12 gauge...

oh forget it, just get a ladder!

LOL!!!

It would appear from the article listed that the Major Market players are betting on a significant Hurricane season, or they are are anticipating building their reserves to a staggering point.

 

This article states that the premiums for hurricane coverage could raise an ADDITIONAL 50% NEXT YEAR.

http://www.forbes.com:80/markets/feeds/afx/2006/11/28/afx3207736.html

    And not to be outdone our own risk assessment companies agree:

<form> id=Form1 name=Form1 action=PrinterFriendly.aspx?{FCCDA387-EE54-4088-B98F-A8204683F3F9} method=post>

U.S. Hurricane Risk Still Seen Above Normal: RMS

NU Online News Service, Nov. 22, 1:16 p.m. EST <script language=JavaScript></script>