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Last Post 09/09/2012 12:26 AM by  CatAdjusterX
94l FUTURE ISAAC?
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olderthendirt
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08/18/2012 10:18 AM
    Well there is something to watch, this has the feel of a major and a long runner.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    Tex Walker
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    08/18/2012 12:11 PM
    Nothing like watching something for two weeks curve out to sea
    olderthendirt
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    08/19/2012 11:08 AM
    Staying weak (sahara dust) and this allows it to continue moving west. Still worth watching.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    CatAdjusterX
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    08/19/2012 10:30 PM
    Posted By olderthendirt on 19 Aug 2012 11:08 AM
    Staying weak (sahara dust) and this allows it to continue moving west. Still worth watching.

    ......................................................

    OTD, Isaac or what will soon become Isaac seems strangely ominous.

    "A good leader leads..... ..... but a great leader is followed !!" CatAdjusterX@gmail.com
    stormcrow
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    08/20/2012 1:20 PM
    We can also watch 95L trying to form up and move north from the coast of Mexico, and another CV wave 96L but this is a little further north as it leaves Africa and would likely recurve. Also is there a chance for 94L to reach Tampa in time for the Republican National Convention?
    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
    Medulus
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    08/20/2012 6:46 PM
    I'm no meteorologist, but it does look like a potentially major storm. And I know better by this point than to try to predict the future direction. I would not, however, want to be sipping cuba libres in the Lesser Antilles 3 or 4 days from now.
    Steve Ebner CPCU AIC AMIM

    "With great power comes great responsibility." (Stanley Martin Lieber, Amazing Fantasy # 15 August 1962)
    olderthendirt
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    08/21/2012 12:28 AM
    Will likely mke the Lesser Antilles Wednesday, it is moving very fast. Then it should slow down and??? Hisponola? Cuba? Gulf? Florida? East coast? How stong? 1800 run of
    GFS takes to the west coast of Florida. HWRF as it at Jamaca in 5 days. My best guess is a hurricane will hit somewhere between Tampico and Halifax.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    margar1
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    08/21/2012 11:51 AM
    Well Dirt here we are again another year older and still watchin storms. This one looks like it may be a player and the models are always so darn inconsistent this far out. The scenario that Doc Master on weatherunderound mentioned as a more southern track would avoid the high elevations of the mountains in Cuba and thus a larger and more potent storm getting into the gulf. Then again if the trough picks it up near Cuba a South Florida impact could take place. Just to early to tell but hey...we got something to watch.
    Mark S Garland
    olderthendirt
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    08/21/2012 9:57 PM
    Models are really liking Florida at this time. How many of us drove to Florida for Ike only to have to run for Texas. I came to Orlando on standyby rate and as soon as it missed Florida they canceled the pay, Something I will take the liberty of remembering. Even saw Belfor semis heading south. Emails have started today, even from a vendor I had asked to remove my name. This continues things will get very busy very quickly.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    Tex Walker
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    08/22/2012 11:39 AM
    I'm on 14 standby lists as of this morning... I keep adding my name to them for no apparent reason. It's funny how none of them never seem to call but just want your name in case of a CAT 6 one day
    olderthendirt
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    08/23/2012 9:16 AM
    Time to go out oln a limb and suggest landfall somewhere between Jacksonville Fl and Sabine Pass Texas. But Pensacola to Mobile should be watching closely. Strength will be the question after it crosses Hispanola and part of Cuba. Again I will go out on a limb and predict somewhere between a Cat 1 and cat 4. I think the Republicans are going to get wet.
    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    MPaxton
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    08/23/2012 12:05 PM
    Newbie! Licensed! Excellent references! Sharp! OCD Organized! Yr experience! Looking to work as an assistant for an Experienced Adjuster! Available ASAP!!!!
    AcceleratedAdjuster
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    08/23/2012 4:08 PM
    Posted By olderthendirt on 23 Aug 2012 09:16 AM
    Time to go out oln a limb and suggest landfall somewhere between Jacksonville Fl and Sabine Pass Texas. But Pensacola to Mobile should be watching closely. Strength will be the question after it crosses Hispanola and part of Cuba. Again I will go out on a limb and predict somewhere between a Cat 1 and cat 4. I think the Republicans are going to get wet.

    I think you must live in the Redwoods. Only place I know of with limbs that big and sturdy.

    www.acceleratedadjusting.com www.acceleratedadjustingisrael.com
    HuskerCat
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    08/24/2012 1:39 AM
    Posted By Tex Walker on 22 Aug 2012 11:39 AM
    I'm on 14 standby lists as of this morning... I keep adding my name to them for no apparent reason. It's funny how none of them never seem to call but just want your name in case of a CAT 6 one day


    IMHO, 14 lists might be too many?  Maybe being on 1 or 2 would suit someone better......that's been my experience anyway, and everyone I see annually.
    olderthendirt
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    08/24/2012 9:38 AM

    20 years ago Andrew was the first storm of the year and became my first Cat. assignment. (but long ways from my first claim).

    Now Isaac.  I will narrow my landfall guess to between Hollywood Beach Fl and Morgan City La. This is a big storm but is still trying to get its act together strength wise. 18  to 24 hours before it hits or brushs SW Hati, then Cuba. NHC does not think it will strengthen much before reaching the Keys then the gulf coast. Time will tell, but a good day to check out you equipment, never hurts to be ready.

    Life is like a sewer, what you get out of it depends on what you put in it
    AcceleratedAdjuster
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    08/24/2012 4:46 PM

    Woo, it just dropped beneath the 1000mb marker. Now we are cooking with fire! 

    www.acceleratedadjusting.com www.acceleratedadjustingisrael.com
    stormcrow
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    08/24/2012 6:21 PM
    Strengthening TS soon to hit Hati and take a short path accross; then how much of Cuba does it cross? We will have to wait and see what is left when it gets back in the water. There is a chance this never gets above a TS.
    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
    ChuckDeaton
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    08/24/2012 10:18 PM
    Actually it is doubtful that this storm will reach hurricane strength!
    "Prattling on and on about being an ass with experience doesn't make someone experienced. It just makes you an ass." Rod Buvens, Pilot grunt
    AcceleratedAdjuster
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    08/25/2012 6:58 AM
    Posted By ChuckDeaton on 24 Aug 2012 10:18 PM
    Actually it is doubtful that this storm will reach hurricane strength!

    Initially, I would have agreed with you, but the steady drop in pressure (from 1003mb yesterday at 4pm EST to 992mb today at 6am EST) does indicate a strengthening storm. Pressure will likely increase over Cuba, but it looks like it might skirt the NE coast of Cuba instead of a direct hit. If it does that, it would not be unreasonable to speculate that the pressure will continue to drop. 980mb is the magic number, and anything lower is a bonus, for us at least. If the drop continues at anything close to the rate it began dropping yesterday, we should easily achieve that number.

    Then again, maybe I am just being led on by the weather people already leaning sideways in a light gust, while sitting in canoes in a half inch of water. If nothing else, it will make the weather channel interesting again :)

    www.acceleratedadjusting.com www.acceleratedadjustingisrael.com
    stormcrow
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    08/25/2012 2:10 PM

    HMMM about 4 more hours to cross Cuba (60 miles or so) and mountains up to 2400 feet. Expect this will have time to make hurricane1 and most like 2 before landfall on the gulf coast, as for the Keys, they may not see a hurricane. Expect the phones to get busy. Some where from the big bend to NOLA. If this stalls out after land fall could be some major inland flooding.

     

    Update I was looking at old data and Isaac is now of the north coast of Cuba and is expected to turn more to the west north west hitting the Keys rather then Miami.

    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
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