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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date : 4 April 2019

  • Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 13
  • Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 50
  • Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 5
  • Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 16
  • Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 2
  • Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 4
  • PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
    HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
    AREAS:
    1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 48% (average for last century is 52%)
    2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 28% (average for last century is 31%)
    3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 28% (average for last century is 30%)

The above is from the report, follow the link below for the full report.

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