NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Issued: 23 May 2019
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
a. Predicted Activity
NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
9-15 Named Storms
4-8 Hurricanes
2-4 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered on the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of the hurricane season.
The above is from the NOAA Report. Use the Link below for the complete Outlook on NOAA's site.