EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Roy / Thursday, April 2, 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

"We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2020
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses) Issue Date 2 April 2020

Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 80
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 8 Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 35
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 4
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106) 150
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%) 160

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

Entire continental U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 88-60°W)