Well the forecast are starting to come out.
Colorado State University released their forecast on 12/8/2010. In summary the forecast calls for 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. Below is the forecast for hurricane landfall.
Probabilities for at least one major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 48% (average for last century is 30%)
Click here for the full report from Colorado State
Weather Services International posted a forecast on 12/22/2010. Here is a quote from the article:
Andover, MA, December 22, 2010 — In its first tropical forecast for 2011, WSI (Weather Services International) is predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2011 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and also slightly above the averages from the more active recent period (1995-2010) of 15/8/4.
“We expect another very active season in 2011, with above-normal Atlantic ocean temperatures and favorable wind shear conditions. Typically, years after La Nina events are quite active, especially if the La Nina doesn’t rapidly transition to an El Nino event,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “Most of the statistical and dynamical guidance suggests that the chance of this occurring is relatively low.”
Click here for the full article |