"We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."  Quote from the 4/6/2011 Forecast from Colorado State University. 

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2011 

Forecast as of 6 April 2011 

Named Storms - 16 

Hurricanes - 9 

Major Hurricanes - 5 

 

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE 

LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:  

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 

31%) 

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average 

for last century is 30%) 

 

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE 

TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W) 

1)   61% (average for last century is 42%) .