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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
 Posted - 09/07/2003 : 10:36:06
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| one the way behind her. Well we have another CV hurricane destined to become a major and looks like it will track south of the track of Fabian. Fabian caught the edge of Herberts Box expect Isobel will be well inside. Most storms that pass throught that area will make landfall. And the wave behind looks like it is going to be a player. And for the next 10 days, maybe we will see kate in the Gulf. |
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ALANJ
USA
159 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2003 : 10:38:15
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I just counted my chickens!
MoJo !!! MoJo!!!! MoJo!!!!!!! |
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KileAnderson
USA
875 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2003 : 11:15:15
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| Mark, it is Hebert's box not Herberts box. Named after my ancestor Paul Hebert of the NWS. I know it seems like a small thing but there are only a few thousand of us Heberts left in the world and other than a mediocre USFL/NFL quarterback and a pretty good NHL goalie we don't have much to brag about. Please don't take this away from us. |
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Vince Tabor
USA
3 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2003 : 16:24:55
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Isabel is tracking along the old hurricane Floyd
track. If all constants remain the same... SC & NC
could be in for the big 2003 whirly.I hope everyone
prepares early and no lives are lost. |
J V Tabor |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/08/2003 : 11:54:54
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Sorry Kile, my key board still cann't spell. Did you ever get to meet your famous ancestor? He actually has two boxes. They are more important to weather watchers then the more famous Bermuda triangle. Jaun will be a fish, will not be around for long. But Isabel is likley more on Donna's track then Floyd. The turn more to the west seems to be happening early. The islands should watch this storm VERY closely. Track of Donna http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1960/DONNA/track.gif
Any guesses at how much damage (Insured Losses) this storm would do if had happened this year? 50 Billon 100 Billon, more? |
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goose
57 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2003 : 16:32:13
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This is a quote from the 5PM advisory. "THIS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF ISABEL BY THE MODEL...AND THE
GFS MAINTAINS A PATHETIC LOOKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
CERTAINLY NOTHING REMOTELY RESEMBLING A MAJOR HURRICANE...THROUGH
72 HOURS. THE RESULT IS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF
ISABEL FORCES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL
AND THE UKMET... TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...ALSO HAVE SIMILAR
LOOKING WEAK CIRCULATIONS...THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY THE
12Z NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZES ISABEL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE."
I am confused. Are they saying that the models are insufficient for the current conditions or that they believe that Isabel is going to fall apart? I was confused reading this as they say she is continuing to strengthen and is heading over warm water. I need an interpreter. |
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Catmandale
USA
67 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2003 : 19:08:03
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| I worked Bertha and Fran in Wilmington. Seems to me one of the residents there told me that Donna laid off the coast for a week or more. Is that even possible? Just a little trivia. |
"When we thought that we had all the answers,
suddenly all the questions changed."
Mario Benedetti (1920); Uruguayan writer.
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ALANJ
USA
159 Posts |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2003 : 19:17:33
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| Looking at the map doesn't appear that she did. Now for isabel, well they is a chance she may stall, over south Florida for up to 3 days and then drift north. That is one theory (WAQ). There is nothing coming up to cause her to recurve. The gulf seems unlikely. We are going to get a visit, likely in Florida but maybe to the north or both. The question is strength. A week is a long time for a storm to stay at cat 3 or higher. Also there may be cold water upwellings starting on the Florida coast, which if she is moving slowly could weaken her. Pour another pot of coffee and check your gear. It will be a long week. Still waiting for Jaun more 14 was a bust. Also the remian of Henri could still bring story weather to the NE. |
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ALANJ
USA
159 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2003 : 19:56:56
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Gulf stream is like pouring gas on a fire. Check the old Andrew data.
If it hits it will be a b______ |
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TomWeems
USA
24 Posts |
Posted - 09/11/2003 : 14:47:45
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| This storm is looking more and more like a NC bash again. Poor Wilmington....Surf City, HERE WE COME.... |
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KileAnderson
USA
875 Posts |
Posted - 09/11/2003 : 16:51:08
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| The 5:00 update says winds are over 160mph. Somebody better batten down them hatches, the big blow is on its way. |
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catmanager
USA
102 Posts |
Posted - 09/11/2003 : 17:21:01
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Probably won't maintain as a 5 for long, but nothing wrong with a strong three or 4!!!!
Maybe I should run out and and beat the rush for batteries and water!!!!!
Check out the links below the map on this page.....
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/ |
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Will Isabel be swell and is there juan more
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