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NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.


CSU June 2,2022 Hurricane Season Update

Quote from updated Forecast

"We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022. We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."


First tropical wave of the 2022 Season

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 8 2022

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the season has emerged off the W coast of Africa this morning. It is currently located along 14W S of 10N this morning, moving W at 10 kts. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing well S of the Cabo Verde Islands.


CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research

CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June.

"We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." (as of 3 June 2021)

Source of the above: CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research 


Near- or below-normal 2021 hurricane season predicted for the Central Pacific

Source: NOAA

There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season. 


Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

The source of the information below is the Insurance Information Institute, iii.org

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia have hurricane deductibles: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington DC. Listed below are reports for these states detailing hurricane deductibles.

 


EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020

Source:Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University

We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current warm neutral ENSO conditions appear likely to transition to cool neutral ENSO or potentially even weak La Niña conditions by this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average; however, most of the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 


Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

Source: North Carolina Department of Insurance

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...

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From the KB

Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...

Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

The source of the information below is the Insurance Information Institute, iii.org

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia have hurricane deductibles: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington DC. Listed below are reports for these states detailing hurricane deductibles.

 

Historical Hurricane Tracks

Subject: Historical Hurricane Tracks
Description: The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data. 

Source: NOAA Climate.gov 
 

Some Notable Cane Activity since we have been online

2012

Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as the second-costliest hurricane in United States history. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane and second major hurricane of the year, Sandy was a Category 3 storm at its peak intensity when it made landfall in Cuba.[1] While it was a Category 2 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)).[2][3] Estimates as of March 2014 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD), a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina.[4] At least 286 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos - Discussions: Sandy Disscussion -

2011

Hurricane Irene, the storm slowly leveled-off in intensity as it struck the Bahamas and then curved northward after passing east of Grand Bahama. Continuing to weaken, Irene was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 27, becoming the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Ike in 2008. Early on the following day, the storm re-emerged into the Atlantic from southeastern Virginia. Although Irene remained a hurricane over land, it weakened to a tropical storm while making yet another landfall in the Little Egg Inlet in southeastern New Jersey on August 28. A few hours later, Irene made its ninth and final landfall in Brooklyn, New York City. Early on August 29, Irene transitioned into an extratropical cyclone hitting Vermont/New Hampshire after remaining inland as a tropical cyclone for less than 12 hours. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos - Discussions:

2008

Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles from the center. The hurricane gradually intensified as it moved across the Gulf toward the Texas coast. Ike made landfall over the north end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of September 13 as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland across eastern Texas and Arkansas and became extratropical over the middle Mississippi Valley on September 14. It then moved rapidly through the Ohio valley and into Canada, producing wind gusts to hurricane force along the way. Source: NOAA

2005

Hurricane Katrina Was the deadliest and most destructive Atlantic tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Katrina is the seventh most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, part of the 2005 season that included three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever documented (along with #1 Wilma and #4 Rita). At least 1,833 people died in the hurricane and subsequent floods, making it the deadliest U.S. hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane; total property damage was estimated at $108 billion (2005 USD),[1] roughly four times the damage brought by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Photos Discussions: 

2004

The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest Atlantic hurricane season, until the following year. More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. Due to a Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific – activity was above average. The first storm, Alex, developed offshore of the Southeastern United States on July 31. It brushed the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, causing one death and $7.5 million (2004 USD) in damage.[nb 1] Several storms resulted in minor impact, including tropical storms Bonnie, Earl, Hermine, and Matthew. In addition, hurricanes Danielle, Karl, and Lisa, Tropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Nicole and Tropical Storm Otto caused no impact on land while tropical cyclones. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2003

Hurricane Isabel was the costliest, deadliest, and strongest hurricane in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. The ninth named storm, fifth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season, Isabel formed near the Cape Verde Islands from a tropical wave on September 6 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It moved northwestward, and within an environment of light wind shear and warm waters it steadily strengthened to reach peak winds of 165 mph (265 km/h) on September 11. After fluctuating in intensity for four days, Isabel gradually weakened and made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) on September 18. It quickly weakened over land and became extratropical over western Pennsylvania the next day. Source: Wikipedia Photo Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC
Discussions: 458,000 ISO- Hurricane Isabel Claims, "Isabel", is a Hot Potato headed behind? and more..

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Storm Names

  • Arlene
  • Bret
    • Remnants of Bret dissipated at 5 PM EDT6/24/23
  • Cindy
  • Don
  • Emily
  • Franklin
  • Gert
  • Harold
  • Idalia Makes landfall at 745 AM EDT on 8/30/2023 as a Category 3 Hurricane in the Florida Big Bend
  • Jose
  • Katia
  • Lee
  • Margot
  • Nigel
  • Ophelia
  • Philippe
  • Rina
  • Sean
  • Tammy
  • Vince
  • Whitney

     

Popular Weather Discussions

Hurricane Sandy
At this time a rapidly strengthening hurricane is going to cross Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. But what then. Some modleing is suggesting a sub tropical blow to the NE with widespread 60 to 70 mph wi
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Zombie Apocalypse Insurance
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2014 Hurricane Season
From Tyler Stanfield's WunderBlog "Overview of the 2014 Season With the increasing odds of an El Nino event developing by the peak of the 2014 hurricane season, unfavorable conditions will likely
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6/13/2012 Monster DFW hail storm
Why has it not been mentioned on here? 2nd largest hail storm in Texas history. The largest was in Fort Worth in 1995. Anybody working in DFW?
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Posted In: Hail, Flood, Hurricanes and Weather Events


FLOODS IN AUSTRALIA
Australia is having flooding over an area as big as Texas. Twenty two towns are flooded. It is interesting how their issues are similar but different from the U.S. I wonder if there's any work availab
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Hurricane Douglas may impact the Hawaiian Islands
Based on the latest reports and the current track it looks like Hurricane Douglas may impact the Hawaiian Islands.  Have you had an assignment on the Islands?   I have and there are som
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Debby
T.D by Sunday? Debby? 50% percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It is sitting in a good spot right now, something to watch over the weekend.
Replies: 2
Posted In: Hail, Flood, Hurricanes and Weather Events


2013 Hurricane Season - Will we have a Cane?
So far we have not had any hurricanes, the media is stating that the 2013 season could set a new record for the latest season to have a hurricane form.   In recent history the latest first h
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94l FUTURE ISAAC?
Well there is something to watch, this has the feel of a major and a long runner.
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Any Ice claim events Yet?
Has anyone been contacted to go to the northeast and handle any ice claims yet? Sounds like California is getting dumped on w/ rain up to 16" so far. Maybe the Santa  Anna winds will produce som
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Cane Categories

  • Cat 1 Hurricane
    - Sustained Winds 74-95 mph
  • Cat 2 Hurricane
    - Sustained Winds 96-110 mph
  • Cat 3 Hurricane
    - Sustained Winds 111-130 mph
  • Cat 4 Hurricane
    - Sustained Winds 131-155 mph
  • Cat 5 Hurricane
    - Sustained Winds greater than 155 mph

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The Storm Page, this is the CADO version of a weather page. On this page we provide information on current weather events, links to weather sites and weather related discussions. All adjusters are invited to share weather information by posting it in the forum or adding your favorite weather links to the Resource Directory. Also, if you have photos of weather related damage please share them by adding them to the Photo Gallery.

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