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CSU June 2,2022 Hurricane Season Update

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/ Categories: Hurricanes
CSU June 2,2022 Hurricane Season Update

"EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2022

We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022. We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. (as of 2 June 2022

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2022

Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020 Average (in parentheses) Issue Date June 2 2022

  • Named Storms (NS) (14.4), 2022 Season - 20 
  • Named Storm Days (NSD) (69.4), 2022 Season - 95
  • Hurricanes (H) (7.2), 2022 Season - 10
  • Hurricane Days (HD) (27.0), 2022 Season - 40
  • Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2), 2022 Season - 5
  • Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (7.4), 2022 Season - 11
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (123), 2022 Season -180
  • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (135%), 2022 Season - 195


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: Updated per June 2 Forecast

​1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 76% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 51% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 50% (average for last century is 30%)

 

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 88-60°W)

1) 65% (average for last century is 42%)

The above information comes from the CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecast, you can follow the link below to read the entire forecast which is a pdf. The image is from the CatAdjuster.org photo gallery.

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