CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast
Roy
/ Categories: Hurricanes

CSU 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research

CSU released its second forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 3 June.

"We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." (as of 3 June 2021)

. . .

Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2021 Average for 1991-2020
Named Storms 18 14.4
Named Storm Days 80 69.4
Hurricanes 8 7.2
Hurricane Days 35 27.0
Major Hurricanes 4 3.2
Major Hurricane Days 9 7.4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy+ 150 123
+A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence.

. . .

Landfalling probability included in report

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:

• 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)

• 45 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)

• 44 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)

• 58 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)

The source of the above is the CSU Forecast.  A link to the updated forecast is provided below, it is a pdf. 

AccuWeather's Atlantic 2021 Hurricane Season forecast predicts that we could see 16-20 named storms, 7-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major Hurricanes and 3-5 direct impacts on the U.S.,  here is  a link to their latest forecast: AccuWeather's  2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

More forecast to come.

Photo from the Adjuster's Photo Gallery 

Previous Article CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
Next Article NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook
Print
1523
Please login or register to post comments.

Theme picker

Latest News

  • All
  • News
  • Storms
  • DOI
  • Insurers
  • Vendors
  • Hurricanes
  • Earthquakes
  • International
  • Man Made
  • Flood
  • Catastrophes
  • Wind Pool
  • Insurance Law
  • Licensing
  • Citizens - Florida
  • FEMA
  • Work
  • Software
More

    Up Coming Events

    «January 2022»
    MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
    272829303112
    3456789
    10111213141516
    17181920
    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Thu Jan 20

    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Thu Jan 20

    Webinar Opens:  8:30 AM Central Time
    Start Time:  9:00 AM Central Time
    Lunch Break:  30 Minutes
    End Time:  3:30 PM Central Time

    Thu Jan 20 - ​Register

    Please register for one presentation only.*

    Read more
    2122
    2022 Mid-America Catastrophe Conference Registration is Open!

    2022 Mid-America Catastrophe Conference Registration is Open!

    Coming to the Beau Rivage in beautiful Biloxi, Mississippi

    January 22 -26, 2022

    Don’t miss the biggest event of the year, featuring…

    The renowned Adjuster Appreciation Dinner & Concert
    The always-a-blast golf scrambles
    Engaging, essential Continuing Education classes with credits available in key states like TX and FL (among others)
    Amazing sponsors
    Networking opportunities
    Carrier certifications
    The famous finale raffle giveaway

    https://midamcat.com/2022-conference-enrollment/

    Event Location: Beau Rivage Resort and Casino

    Read more
    23
    24
    2526
    27282930
    311
    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Tue Feb 1

    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Tue Feb 1

    Webinar Opens:  8:30 AM Central Time
    Start Time:  9:00 AM Central Time
    Lunch Break:  30 Minutes
    End Time:  3:30 PM Central Time

    Tue Feb 1 - ​Register

    Please register for one presentation only.*

    Read more
    23
    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Thu Feb 3

    2022 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation Webinar - Thu Feb 3

    Webinar Opens:  8:30 AM Central Time
    Start Time:  9:00 AM Central Time
    Lunch Break:  30 Minutes
    End Time:  3:30 PM Central Time

    Thu Feb 3 - ​Register

    Please register for one presentation only.*

    Read more
    456

    Click here to add an Event

    Archive