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Excallibro
USA
2 Posts |
 Posted - 09/19/2003 : 02:00:24
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For those who have worked these baby hurricanes in the past, which are short on wind, and long on flood. It often leaves me wondering. Should the wise adjuster commit so early in the season, to such a crappy little storm? The ole sayings teaches, ...."a bird in the hand ....."
The Gulf waters are a bath this time of the year, with more favorable upper level wind patterns due to latitude. The question is, will there be two in the bush?
The Eastern Pacific has been unusually quiet this season, and veteran weather watchers know how odd this is. Has anyone read or heard any forecasters mention what this may mean for the fall Gulf hurricane season this year, which typically begins about now and ends the first of November?
I haven't read any forecast models which try and predict the Gulf hurricane season, but given the unusual lack of Eastern Pacific storms this year, you've gotta wonder. This has got to be a historic low for Eastern Pacific hurricanes.
It seems that I remember reading someplace, that a lack of Eastern Pacific convection, can be more favorable for the development of convective activity over the Gulf, because of the earth's spin and the effect that these storms have on surpressing activity to the East.
If anyone has read anything on this, I'd really like to see the theorectical models. I can't find any which try and focus on the Gulf, only the Atlantic basin as a whole.
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ChuckDeaton
USA
373 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2003 : 06:15:19
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| Maybe this will be like Floyd and Irene, no sooner than we had finished Floyd in Carolina, Irene hit Florida. |
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TedPasan
82 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2003 : 06:50:47
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| Isabel is/was just another 'Bertha'. Damages and number of claims are going to be almost identical and it is a 3-4 week storm at best. |
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A bird in the Hand ....vs. coming Gulf hurricane?
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