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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
 Posted - 09/18/2002 : 11:04:32
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will be Isidore, but as what , a hurricane, likely. But where, no one knows. Note the lasted discussion says all areas in the gulf.
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
WE ARE IN A BRIEF GAP BETWEEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISIDORE CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER
AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL ALMOST SURELY FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FOR THE FIRST
TIME AND INCREASED WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW RATHER QUICKLY. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER DEVELOPS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THINKING. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. IN THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THINGS GET
INTERESTING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING
WILL BE EVERYTHING AS TO WHETHER ISIDORE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH INTO
THE GULF TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...OR LEFT BEHIND. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...NO PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO COASTLINE CAN BE RULED OUT AS A POTENTIAL ULTIMATE LANDFALL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 17.9N 78.7W 40 KTS
12HR VT 19/0000Z 18.7N 79.5W 45 KTS
24HR VT 19/1200Z 19.9N 80.8W 55 KTS
36HR VT 20/0000Z 21.1N 82.1W 65 KTS
48HR VT 20/1200Z 22.5N 83.5W 75 KTS
72HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 80 KTS
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KileAnderson
USA
875 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 11:53:55
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| Don't get too excited, it could still turn out to sea. Given all that has happened in the past few years that's exactly what it will do. Could Isidore be the saviour of our profession? Only time will tell. |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 13:19:27
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| This storm has no chance to turn out to sea, but it could still fade (unliklely) or find one of thise gaps in the coast where no one lives or visit our neighbours to the south. It is almost certain to make it into the GOM but from there????????? |
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KileAnderson
USA
875 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 14:48:47
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| I've been reading a few things that say it could be heading more north than NW. It could still conceivably head over Cuba and turn east without affecting Florida at all. But I also read that the local municipalities are lowering the water levels in the drainage canals and installing more pumps. Could be a big one, all we can do is watch. Aint it fun? |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 16:33:03
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| Try www.nhc.noaa.gov go to satilite and floater 1 best images. Cahnce of going south of Florida are dropping faster then Martha Stewards credibility. Hguh difference in opinion where is goes once in the gulf. |
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KileAnderson
USA
875 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 19:22:35
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| Now it looks like it could hit anywhere from Houston to Ft. Walton. Who knows? The way things have been going I'm sure it will spin up into a cat 5 and go into extreme south texas again where there are nothing but cows. |
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ALANJ
USA
159 Posts |
Posted - 09/18/2002 : 21:44:24
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| There must be something to this. I received calls from two different vendors wanting to put me on stand by. |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
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Newt
USA
657 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2002 : 08:37:31
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The temp of the water is playing a major roll in stearing this thing.and if it slows down now its going to be bad. The timing of that front moving down from the NW toward the SE could deflect it. Probably west. We can't out guess the weather gurus, and right now they seem to be
waiting also, and giving different scenerios. I'll bet we have some info by Sat. and the keys will be feeling the effect of it. Wind are up so it is building.(55mph) |
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Admin
547 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2002 : 10:36:13
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I noticed that some the track models indicate that this storm will make to a hurricane and make landfall near Cedar Key or Naples Florida on Monday. But the model I find interesting is the Canadian model which forecasts the storm to make landfall very close to Fort Myers, Florida.
source |
Roy Cupps -
CatAdjuster.org :: Contact\Feedback :: Adjuster Roster :: Current Forum |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/19/2002 : 19:56:15
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| The phones are starting to ring, but after several years of endless standbys it's difficult to get to excited. BUT this is going to be qa big one for someone.! |
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wraydecker
USA
9 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2002 : 00:41:12
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| Let's get ready to rumble |
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CCarr
Canada
1200 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2002 : 10:02:36
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Many of you will require a good dose of humor and other such elixirs, if Izzy does not turn sufficiently N or NE, or falls to other weather demons not conducive to the landfall you anticipate. Even if it goes your way this may help at the end of each long day.
Go to http://home.pacbell.net/diana_do/knowjack.htm
and, turn up your speakers |
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olderthendirt
USA
370 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2002 : 10:29:18
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| Isidore to vacation on the northern Yucatan before touring the US? Either he grabs the passing trough this weekend or we will have a week to make sure we are on every standby list known to man. |
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Newt
USA
657 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2002 : 16:04:25
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| This thing is turning more rpms than a fifty seven chevy. Get the dart board Mark, we can make some scientific predictions. Every thing depends on how far north is gets before changing directions, Where on the coast it will make landfall? I will guess Lake Charles, if I can change my mind tomorrow. |
Edited by - Newt on 09/20/2002 16:06:23 |
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Ghostbuster
476 Posts |
Posted - 09/20/2002 : 21:19:06
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AWWWWRIGHT! Why are our girlfriends at the Weather Channel pointing Izzy towards Mexico?
Which one of you Bozos is trying to jinx this thing? Kyle? Olderthendirt? Newt? I know it ain't Jimmy Flynt cause we got him over in the corner with his nose in the circle.
CLAYTON! It's you, ain't it. Just sitting up there sending those dry cool fronts down here, just to infect us with a dose of the poverty blues. Having a high ol' time laughing your head off, aren't ya? Iffen ya don't quit it, we're gonna send Cecelia and Linda up there and give you a good gang nagging. And they know how to do it too!
No more jinxing...please. |
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Coming soon to the GOM
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