As MOST of you know I dont wishcast. The last few seasons have been tough hostile tropical seasons even for the Gulf of Mexico -- GOM.
It is NOT helpful to look at ONE model to say see I "called it 14 days ago" or makes comparisons to camille.
That being said I have to make MAJOR changes to my forecast for next week regarding Izzy. The threat to the natural gas areas in the northern gulf and the overall Populance as well as the North central and FL PANHANDLE is now much Higher than what it was yesterday and probably the strongest and best chance for a severe hurricane in about 7 years.
While it looks like Izzy may turn to the western Northwest were even due west for a couple of days this weekend or early next week... it seems really clear to me that the overall amount of MR (medium range) models now show the third trough that comes in from the Rockies on TUESDAY sept 24 will be strong enough to catch it and turning to the North and or North NE.
That being said.... lets keep in mind a couple of things. This may be a large Hurricane and it takes TIME to get it to turn from a WNW to NW to NE to NE direction. ONCE he is at say 26 N Latitude that means folks in FL SOUTH of that latitude are safe.
Some folks will try and bend him to Ft Myers Miami or Orlando.
Yes Izzy has a GOOD chance to becomer a major or severe hurricane and I do NOT EVER use those terms lightly as Most of you know by now. But that does NOT automatically mean he will be that strtong at landfall!!!
Why? Recall that izzy is going to drift in the SE GOM for several days. He may begin to stir up cooler weater from upwelling IF he sits in the same location for 4 days like the Canadian AVN Ukmet ecwmf Nogapos now ALL show.
It is still possible that Izzy may drift west to Lower texas or Tampico make landfall along the coast THEN get picked up by the trough and turned N or NE back over the GOM to say New Oreleans. But this would be a Much weaker system. Do I think that is likely? NO... but someting to watch out for. However I don't see that happening to the same degree of confidence as yesterday-- one of the reasons is because there may be a 500 trough axis over the western Gulf of Mexico. This would prevent Izzy from crossing the 90th or 92 longitude line.
The FLOOD threat in LA AL GA SC NW FL could be severe. This is going to be a LONG LASTING EVENT.
It looks to me that the hurricane drought in the Gulf of Mexico is over. It has been many years since a major hurricane has developed or moved into the GOM much less made landfall with the last one being Opal in 1995 --- interesting analogy to that winter season as well-- and this one is clearly going to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Of course it is still undecided or uncertain whether not will be a major landfalling hurricane which is a totally separate issue.
The Key to Next weeks North turn is WHERE izzy is located when the phase in starts. get out a GOM Map with Lat and Long, IF izzy is at say 86 or 87 ( the Ukmet & Canadian) THEN a FL Landfall is likely. BUT I see that as unlikjely. Izzy is going to drift in the GOM either West or Nw. At 72hrs (sunday) TPC has Izzy at 24N and 86 W .... Then IF izzy drifts for another 2-3 days he should be at 89 or 90. If that is the case a New oreleans Moblie landfall is much more likely.
This should not be a surprise. In my morning report I mentioned that I expected a Turn to the WNW or W from the NW track IZZY was showing last night and early this morning. Some folks have strongly asserted that some data -- mainly the UKMET and Canadian-- were showing a rapid Move to the NE and FL hit his weekend.
The 12z versions of the Ukmet and Canadian are much further west as you can see. The 18z Huricane models show the same thing. I don't know if the 'it HAS to hit FL" crowd will have picked up on the point or not...
The OVERALL trend is far more important then the EXACT placement at 96 -120 hrs out.
Even the Morning runs of the Ukmet and Canadian that some spoke of earlier also HAD a prolonged stall in the SE quadrant of the GOM. That was the trend and it STILL is. DO not assume that a stall or drift this weekend in the SE GOM means the hurricane is not threat or doesn't have to be taken seriously.!!
This is going to be a LONG event.
The Operational AVN (the American model) still has Izzy in the far western GOM through SEPT 27-28!!! But that is Not likely...the AVN has a severe cold bias and loves to flood the US which large cold air mass that push down into the southern portions of the US. For example IF you by the AVN keeping IZZY in the western GOM 26-28th... then there will also be RECORD cold in KS OK MO. The reason is that the same feature that brings the Cold to those areas is what also keeps Izzy stuck in the western GOM.
For the record I don't buy the AVN idea of keeping IZZY trapped in the western GOM for 8 days. However again as I said this morning a west movement drift is NOT a surprise for me.
SOME of these models have SHARP turn to the Texas North Mexico coast... over the next 72 hr period... BUT as the long range stuff -- that is the GFDL and British model BEYOND 72 hrs --shows there is a CLEAR north turn ONCE Izzy reaches 25 N latitude.
Interestingly this west drift then sharp turn to the north matches the European model over the last 2 runs. Keep in Mind the Euro does turn IZZY north (9/24) and has a direct hit on New Orleans 9/26-9/27-- which is what the GFDL is Now showing but at a faster pace.
This is a CRITICAL point: Once IZZY crosses 25 North Latitude -- whenever and wherever that is --- He will get Pulled North by the trough next week. Question is WHERE will he cross that Parallel? By 87W Long? by 90w Long ? or 95?
IF IZZY cross the 25th parallel at say 87.... then a NE Gulf of mexico Apalachicola to Cedar Key is favored. Not likely-- Favored.
IF IZZY cross the 25th parallel at say 90.... then a New Orleans to Apalachicola landfall is favored. Not likely-- Favored.
IF IZZY cross the 25th parallel at say 92.... then a Lake Charles to Mobile landfall is favored. Not likely-- Favored.
IF IZZY cross the 25th parallel at say 95 West Long.... then a Port O'conner to TX/LA landfall is favored. Not likely-- Favored.
Many forecast have changed ; MINE haven't. I told you 2-3 days ago that IZZY was NOT going to hit FL and it would turn to the west and it would drift... when most others were calling for a FL hit.
I am certain of this based on new data FRI evening as I can be. Izzy WILL NOT make it to MEXICO...and will turn North on the 24 and make landfall on the 26th. A Major or severe hurricane in Louisiana seems a high likelihood possibly in the New Orleans area. What to see the reasons?
It over folks.... Izzy is NOT going to regenerate in the GOM in time. He is way too BROAD and spread out for the Inner core to tighten up again. Flood threat will be high but widepsread Home damage theat is over... Yes Izzy will make landfall close to or over New Orleans but NOT as a Hurricane.
Some model data wabt to take Lille to south Florida next week (Oct 1-2). But right nowe Lille is looking like crap... over the last few days as Izzy was stalled over the Yucatan Lille raced WEST and the distance between these 2 systems shrunk. Now the outlfow from Isidore is creating a hostile enviornment for Lille's Thunderstorms to grow... so the system is weakening fast.
DT Don't beat yourself up. You weren't wrong, you said all along it was going to LA and New Orleans, and it did exactly that. The fact that it didn't get there as a cat3 is only part of the equation. To tell you the truth, the fact that you were correct in where it was going is extremely impressive. Please keep us informed on Lili It is also important to us to know where she may end up. We appreciate ALL your imput and help
MAJOR hurricane coming for Gulf coast; !
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Posted - 09/19/2002 : 11:07:27
