CSU Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. The team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.
When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.
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CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team predicts 23 named storms in 2024
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers forecast eleven to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
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Hurricane landfalling probability included in 2024 report
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
• 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
The above information comes the CSU 4/04/2024 Press Release, it is a PDF and a link to the full press Release is provided on their Forecasting page and is titled "forecast summary". The photo is from the CatAdjuster.org Photo Gallery and is of damage on Cape Hatteras caused by Hurricane Isabel in 2003.