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14 July 2019

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Depression Barry, located inland near the
Louisiana-Arkansas border. Future information on this system will
be contained in public advisories issued by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Barry from the Weather
Prediction Center will be under AWIPS header TCPAT2,
WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN


25 May 2019
NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

a. Predicted Activity

NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
18 April 2019
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2019

"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

03 April 2019
AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

...

"After an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2018, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting 2019 to result in a near- to slightly above-normal season with 12 to 14 storms.

Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes and two to four are forecast to become major hurricanes."

...

Photo from the CADO Gallery

11 December 2018
Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

Identification of Water Damages in Adjusting Hurricane Claims for Water Losses Other Than Flood

....

In adjusting hurricane damage claims for homes within the 1968-1997 applicable residential code period, it is important that the inside of the walls be checked more carefully than
newer construction to ensure that moisture hasn’t seeped into the walls that will eventually result in mold and interior wall rot. If adjusters do not look for moisture build-up trapped inside the wall, then this damage could be missed, causing mold and rot to proliferate and resulting in bigger problems for homeowners in the future.

...

30 November 2018

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. 
19 October 2018

Florida Hurricane Michael Claims Data

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation is reporting a total of 78,688 claims as of October 18, 2018 with Total Estimated Insured Losses at $835,868,692.  See the report for additional details.
05 July 2018

CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months and is now colder than normal. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

The above is from the article.  Click the title to read more.

 

 

20 May 2018

TSR Extended Range Forecast for Northwest Pacific Typhoon Activity in 2018

TSR predicts the 2018 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity slightly above the 1965-2017 norm. However, forecast uncertainties remain large.

09 April 2018

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

11 November 2017

Hurricane Irma recovery slowed by shortages of insurance adjusters, contractors

"Much of the post-Irma frustration stemmed from dealing with catastrophe adjusters quickly trained and supervised under the governor’s Sept. 4 emergency authorization allowing suspension of normal credentialing requirements, Dominguez said.

One such adjuster was dispatched to an English-speaker’s home despite not knowing how to speak English, Dominguez said.

After Hurricane Harvey, “the cream of the crop” of independent insurance adjusters headed to Texas to work for insurance companies there, Papy said. Then, when Irma looked likely to strike Florida, insurers here were forced to compete to secure services from adjusters who didn’t go to Texas." (from the article)

28 October 2017
28 October 2017
28 October 2017
28 October 2017
27 October 2017
27 October 2017
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