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Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018
Areas affected...Southwest and Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200407Z - 200500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible late this
evening into the overnight across parts of southwest and central
Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts may be associated with
the stronger cores. Weather watch issuance will probably not be
needed due to the marginal nature of the threat.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
extending southward from southeast New Mexico to just west of Del
Rio, Texas. A moist airmass is located to the east of the trough
across southern parts of the Texas Hill Country where surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery shows a plume of
mid-level moisture extending north-northeastward across northern
Mexico into Texas. A subtle shortwave trough may be located near
the Rio Grande River in Southwest Texas where thunderstorms are
currently developing in the vicinity of Del Rio. This activity is
forecast to expand in coverage, moving northeastward into western
parts of the Texas Hill Country over the next 2 to 4 hours. The
latest HRRR suggests that some intensification may occur as a line
of storms gradually becomes more defined. Hail and marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cores along the
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30920051 30430086 29990115 29410114 29140091 29120053
29689911 30559827 32179821 32239948 30920051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
southern Plains tonight. The primary threats would be isolated
gusty/damaging winds and large hail.
The late-evening/overnight forecast remains somewhat nebulous, owing
to lower predictability associated with subtle impulses in the
sub-tropical jet over the southern Plains. Regardless, within the
warm/moist sector (from parts of the Edwards Plateau northeastward),
convection may organize later this evening, in response to
increasing large-scale ascent along the eastern fringe of the
western US trough. MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg and ample
effective shear may favor a few stronger updrafts. Meanwhile,
relatively straight hodographs would encourage a convective
evolution towards small bands/line segments, capable of localized
gusty/damaging winds and perhaps large hail in any embedded
supercellular elements. While the tornado threat is non-zero due to
an amplifying low-level jet and related low-level shear, the
expected line orientation and continued uncertainty with regards to
convective development precludes the introduction of probabilities
from the Rio Grande to north-central Texas.
Farther north, tornado probabilities were removed from northwest
Texas/southwest Oklahoma. Persistent, surface-based convective
development here appears highly uncertain for the remainder of the
period, suggesting any tornado threat is diminishing. However,
hail/wind probabilities have been maintained to account for the
potential for a stronger cell or two to develop near/south of the
stalling front overnight. Mean deep-layer flow will transport any
such cells north of the boundary rather quickly, in turn minimizing
the damaging wind threat.
CADO Admin created the event Special 2017 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation
Special 2017 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation
In response to the flooding associated with Hurricane Irma, FEMA has authorized a special NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation for adjusters who were not able to attend a regular 2017 presentation. (Please refer to WYO bulletin w-17053 for important new information for adjusters seeking to return to active status.)
5 months ago
EnservioEnservio launches HarveyContents.com, a free tool to help Hurricane Harvey victims inventory their lost stuff & creates doc to file their insurance claim. More info: http://mwne.ws/2eOAgIm
James Horner created the event 2017 PCS Catastrophe Conference
2017 PCS Catastrophe Conference
Don't miss the 26th annual PCS Catastrophe Conference at The Brown Palace Hotel and Spa in Denver, Colorado, from April 30 – May 2, 2017.
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Exchange views with catastrophe experts and share ideas with peers.
At the PCS Catastrophe Conference, you’ll:
Whether you’re involved in claims, underwriting, actuarial, research and development, or loss control operations, or if you have an interest in insurance-linked securities, you’ll find valuable information in each session. All sessions are interactive, and we encourage you to exchange your views with the experts and share your ideas with your peers.