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25 Aug 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics

Tropical Storm Dorian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:52:47 GMT

Tropical Storm Dorian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:24:34 GMT
Author: CADO Admin
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25 Aug 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 251449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since
the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection
has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding.
However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered
around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.

A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave
satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial
motion is 280/12.  The subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward
for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible
thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area
forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean.  The model
guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit
faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast
track is again shifted a little to the south.  The new forecast
lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus
models.  However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the
UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean.  Additional adjustments to the
track may be required on the next advisory if the current model
trends continue.

While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone
still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective
pattern.  Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the
next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again
calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h.  This part of the
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.  The intensity
forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in
the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter.  The new
forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves
over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to
passage over the island.  However, the large range of possibilities
includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a
hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over
Hispaniola.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and
the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions
of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but
interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 11.2N  52.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 11.5N  54.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 12.0N  56.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 12.7N  59.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 13.5N  61.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 15.6N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 17.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.0N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Author: CADO Admin
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25 Aug 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 251448
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE BE
			
Author: CADO Admin
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25 Aug 2019

Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED AS DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 25 the center of Dorian was located near 11.2, -52.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Author: CADO Admin
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25 Aug 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 251448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  52.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  52.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  52.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.5N  54.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N  56.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N  59.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N  61.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.6N  65.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  52.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Author: CADO Admin
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23 Aug 2019

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

1. Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has
formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300
miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven


Author: CADO Admin
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23 Aug 2019

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores.

Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has
formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300
miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Author: CADO Admin
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12 Aug 2019

NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

NOAA's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

"August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway."

 

Author: Roy
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6 Aug 2019

Colorado State's Updated 2019 Hurricane Forecast

"We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average. While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 5 August 2019)"

The above is an excerpt from the Forecast by Colorado State University.
Author: Roy
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4 Jul 2019

Update: M 7.1 - Earthquake hits NNE of Ridgecrest, CA

Update: M 7.1 - Earthquake hits NNE of Ridgecrest, CA

M 7.1 - 17km NNE of Ridgecrest, CA
2019-07-06 03:19:52 (UTC)35.766°N 117.605°W17.0 km depth

 

Author: CADO Admin
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