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19 February 2018

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 20 04:09:01 UTC 2018

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 20 04:09:01 UTC 2018.
19 February 2018

SPC MD 72

MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
MD 0072 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200407Z - 200500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible late this
evening into the overnight across parts of southwest and central
Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts may be associated with
the stronger cores. Weather watch issuance will probably not be
needed due to the marginal nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
extending southward from southeast New Mexico to just west of Del
Rio, Texas. A moist airmass is located to the east of the trough
across southern parts of the Texas Hill Country where surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery shows a plume of
mid-level moisture extending north-northeastward across northern
Mexico into  Texas. A subtle shortwave trough may be located near
the Rio Grande River in Southwest Texas where thunderstorms are
currently developing in the vicinity of Del Rio. This activity is
forecast to expand in coverage, moving northeastward into western
parts of the Texas Hill Country over the next 2 to 4 hours. The
latest HRRR suggests that some intensification may occur as a line
of storms gradually becomes more defined. Hail and marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cores along the
leading edge.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30920051 30430086 29990115 29410114 29140091 29120053
            29689911 30559827 32179821 32239948 30920051 

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19 February 2018
19 February 2018

SPC Feb 20, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
southern Plains tonight. The primary threats would be isolated
gusty/damaging winds and large hail.

...Discussion...
The late-evening/overnight forecast remains somewhat nebulous, owing
to lower predictability associated with subtle impulses in the
sub-tropical jet over the southern Plains. Regardless, within the
warm/moist sector (from parts of the Edwards Plateau northeastward),
convection may organize later this evening, in response to
increasing large-scale ascent along the eastern fringe of the
western US trough. MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg and ample
effective shear may favor a few stronger updrafts. Meanwhile,
relatively straight hodographs would encourage a convective
evolution towards small bands/line segments, capable of localized
gusty/damaging winds and perhaps large hail in any embedded
supercellular elements. While the tornado threat is non-zero due to
an amplifying low-level jet and related low-level shear, the
expected line orientation and continued uncertainty with regards to
convective development precludes the introduction of probabilities
from the Rio Grande to north-central Texas.

Farther north, tornado probabilities were removed from northwest
Texas/southwest Oklahoma. Persistent, surface-based convective
development here appears highly uncertain for the remainder of the
period, suggesting any tornado threat is diminishing. However,
hail/wind probabilities have been maintained to account for the
potential for a stronger cell or two to develop near/south of the
stalling front overnight. Mean deep-layer flow will transport any
such cells north of the boundary rather quickly, in turn minimizing
the damaging wind threat.

..Picca.. 02/20/2018

Read more
22 January 2018

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 22 10:02:01 UTC 2018

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 22 10:02:01 UTC 2018.
11 January 2018
2017 was 3rd warmest year on record for U.S.

2017 was 3rd warmest year on record for U.S.

January 8, 2018 2017 will be remembered as a year of extremes for the U.S. as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, fires and freezes claimed hundreds of lives and visited economic hardship upon the nation. Recovery from the ravages of three major Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and an extreme and ongoing wildfire season in the West is expected to continue well into the new year.
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018

Winter storm conditions keep law officers busy

  1. Winter storm conditions keep law officers busy  The Star Democrat
  2. Full coverage
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
06 January 2018
05 January 2018
05 January 2018
05 January 2018

Reports from the Community, login to add a report

CADO Admin created the event Special 2017 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation

Special 2017 NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation

In response to the flooding associated with Hurricane Irma, FEMA has authorized a special NFIP Adjuster Claims Presentation for adjusters who were not able to attend a regular 2017 presentation. (Please refer to WYO bulletin w-17053 for important new information for adjusters seeking to return to active status.)

5 months ago

EnservioEnservio launches HarveyContents.com, a free tool to help Hurricane Harvey victims inventory their lost stuff & creates doc to file their insurance claim. More info: http://mwne.ws/2eOAgIm

5 months ago

    James Horner created the event 2017 PCS Catastrophe Conference

    2017 PCS Catastrophe Conference

    Don't miss the 26th annual PCS Catastrophe Conference at The Brown Palace Hotel and Spa in Denver, Colorado, from April 30 – May 2, 2017.


    Register Today!




    For two decades, the PCS Catastrophe Conference has been bringing together professionals in the catastrophe-response business to explore new strategies and tools for catastrophe management. Throughout the conference, experts discuss targeted topics in depth, while sharing their own experiences, offering practical solutions, and bringing new ideas to the table.


    Exchange views with catastrophe experts and share ideas with peers.


    At the PCS Catastrophe Conference, you’ll:



    • explore new strategies and tools for catastrophe management

    • review pressing industry issues and other timely subjects

    • network with prominent industry experts and learn from their expertise


    Whether you’re involved in claims, underwriting, actuarial, research and development, or loss control operations, or if you have an interest in insurance-linked securities, you’ll find valuable information in each session. All sessions are interactive, and we encourage you to exchange your views with the experts and share your ideas with your peers.

    11/12/2016