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NHC Atlantic Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

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CADO Admin

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

From Wikipedia

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018.  Read more
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Roy

Florida Hurricane Michael Claims Data

Source: Florida Office of Insurance Regulation

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation is reporting a total of 78,688 claims as of October 18, 2018 with Total Estimated Insured Losses at $835,868,692.  See the report for additional details.
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CADO Admin

CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Source: Colorado State University

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months and is now colder than normal. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

The above is from the article.  Click the title to read more.

 

 

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CADO Admin

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

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CADO Admin

Hurricane Irma recovery slowed by shortages of insurance adjusters, contractors

Source: sun-sentinel.com

"Much of the post-Irma frustration stemmed from dealing with catastrophe adjusters quickly trained and supervised under the governor’s Sept. 4 emergency authorization allowing suspension of normal credentialing requirements, Dominguez said.

One such adjuster was dispatched to an English-speaker’s home despite not knowing how to speak English, Dominguez said.

After Hurricane Harvey, “the cream of the crop” of independent insurance adjusters headed to Texas to work for insurance companies there, Papy said. Then, when Irma looked likely to strike Florida, insurers here were forced to compete to secure services from adjusters who didn’t go to Texas." (from the article)

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2018 Storm Names

  • Alberto 
    • Subtropical Storm, Made Landfall near Laguna Beach, FL around 4PM 5/28/18 with Maximum Sustained winds of 45 MPH
  • Beryl 
  • Chris 
  • Debby 
  • Ernesto 
  • Florence 
    • Made landfall at 7:15 am 9-14-18, near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a Cat 1 Hurricane
  • Gordon
    • Made landfall as a TS around 10:15 PM CDT 9/4/18 just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border with estimated maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.
  • Helene 
  • Isaac 
  • Joyce 
  • Kirk 
  • Leslie 
  • Michael
    • Made landfall at 1:00 PM CDT 10-10-2018 near Mexico Beach Florida as Cat 4 Hurricane
  • Nadine 
  • Oscar 
  • Patty 
  • Rafael 
  • Sara 
  • Tony 
  • Valerie 
  • William

Wind Speeds

  • Category One Hurricane - Sustained winds 74-95 mph
  • Category Two Hurricane - Sustained winds 96-110 mph
  • Category Three Hurricane  - Sustained winds 111-130 mph
  • Category Four Hurricane  - Sustained winds 131-155 mph
  • Category Five Hurricane  - Sustained winds greater than 155 mph,
     

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