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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


873
ABNT20 KNHC 071109
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Gordon, located over Arkansas.

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
system located about 650 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the associated
showers and thunderstorms remain fairly concentrated near the
center. This system is expected to become a tropical depression
later today or tonight while it moves slowly westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located just off the west
coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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NOAA forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane season prediction

Source: NOAA Press Release

Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months.

“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Read more
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2018 Hurricane Season 8-2 Update from CSU

Source: CSU

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

We continue to forecast a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal, and there is a relatively high potential that a weak El Niño develops in the next several months. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is below normal due to the forecast for a below-average season. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 2 August 2018)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
and Michael M. Bell2 Read more
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CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Source: Colorado State University

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months and is now colder than normal. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

The above is from the article.  Click the title to read more.

 

 

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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Source: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

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Hurricane Irma recovery slowed by shortages of insurance adjusters, contractors

Source: sun-sentinel.com

"Much of the post-Irma frustration stemmed from dealing with catastrophe adjusters quickly trained and supervised under the governor’s Sept. 4 emergency authorization allowing suspension of normal credentialing requirements, Dominguez said.

One such adjuster was dispatched to an English-speaker’s home despite not knowing how to speak English, Dominguez said.

After Hurricane Harvey, “the cream of the crop” of independent insurance adjusters headed to Texas to work for insurance companies there, Papy said. Then, when Irma looked likely to strike Florida, insurers here were forced to compete to secure services from adjusters who didn’t go to Texas." (from the article)

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2018 Storm Names

  • Alberto 
    • Subtropical Storm, Made Landfall near Laguna Beach, FL around 4PM 5/28/18 with Maximum Sustained winds of 45 MPH
  • Beryl 
  • Chris 
  • Debby 
  • Ernesto 
  • Florence 
  • Gordon
    • Made landfall as a TS around 1015 PM CDT (0315 UTC) just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border with estimated maximum sustained winds of
      70 mph (110 km/h). 
  • Helene 
  • Isaac 
  • Joyce 
  • Kirk 
  • Leslie 
  • Michael
    • NHC Bulletin
      Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
    • 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
    • MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
      FLORIDA...
  • Nadine 
  • Oscar 
  • Patty 
  • Rafael 
  • Sara 
  • Tony 
  • Valerie 
  • William

Wind Speeds

  • Category One Hurricane - Sustained winds 74-95 mph
  • Category Two Hurricane - Sustained winds 96-110 mph
  • Category Three Hurricane  - Sustained winds 111-130 mph
  • Category Four Hurricane  - Sustained winds 131-155 mph
  • Category Five Hurricane  - Sustained winds greater than 155 mph,
     

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