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NOAA forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane season prediction

Source: NOAA Press Release

Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months.

“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Read more
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CADO Admin

2018 Hurricane Season 8-2 Update from CSU

Source: CSU

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018

We continue to forecast a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal, and there is a relatively high potential that a weak El Niño develops in the next several months. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is below normal due to the forecast for a below-average season. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

(as of 2 August 2018)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
and Michael M. Bell2 Read more
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CSU team decreases forecast, now calls for near-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Source: Colorado State University

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast from their early April prediction and now call for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The primary reason for this decrease is anomalous cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

The weak La Niña that occurred this past winter has dissipated, and there is the potential that a weak El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). However, the forecast team believes that neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are the most likely scenario for this year’s season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months and is now colder than normal. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The far North Atlantic also remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

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2018 Storm Names

  • Alberto 
    • Subtropical Storm, Made Landfall near Laguna Beach, FL around 4PM 5/28/18 with Maximum Sustained winds of 45 MPH
  • Beryl 
  • Chris 
  • Debby 
  • Ernesto 
  • Florence 
  • Gordon 
  • Helene 
  • Isaac 
  • Joyce 
  • Kirk 
  • Leslie 
  • Michael 
  • Nadine 
  • Oscar 
  • Patty 
  • Rafael 
  • Sara 
  • Tony 
  • Valerie 
  • William

Wind Speeds

  • Category One Hurricane - Sustained winds 74-95 mph
  • Category Two Hurricane - Sustained winds 96-110 mph
  • Category Three Hurricane  - Sustained winds 111-130 mph
  • Category Four Hurricane  - Sustained winds 131-155 mph
  • Category Five Hurricane  - Sustained winds greater than 155 mph,
     

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