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Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2017

Updated June 1, 2017

June 1st Update

We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity. The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have diminished somewhat,
and portions of the tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past two months. While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. 

(as of June 1ST 2017)

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Justices uphold Katrina fraud verdict against State Farm

 

"WASHINGTON — A unanimous Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld a jury verdict that State Farm Fire and Casualty Co. committed fraud against the federal government after 2005’s Hurricane Katrina.

The justices on Tuesday rejected claims by State Farm that the whistleblower case against the insurer should have been dismissed because its existence was leaked while it was supposed to be secret.

Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the court in upholding an appellate ruling that there is no requirement in federal law that the lawsuit be dismissed.

Sisters Cori and Kerry Rigsby filed the fraud lawsuit on behalf of the government after they said they witnessed State Farm shifting Mississippi claims to federal flood insurance that should have been paid by private wind insurance."

(the above is from the article on http://www.pbs.org/)

 

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CADO Admin

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2016

Updated: 7/1/2016

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2016
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Issue Date 1 June 2016 - Updated 7/1

  • Information obtained through July 2016 indicates that the 2016 Atlantic hurricane
    season will have activity near the median 1981-2010 season. There remains considerable
    uncertainty with this forecast which we outline in the following paragraphs.
    We estimate that 2016 will have an additional 5 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 11
    named storms (median is 12.0), 50 named storm days (median is 60.1), 20 hurricane days
    (median is 21.3), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 4 major
    hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is
    estimated to be about 95 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin
    Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2016
    to be approximately 90 percent of their long-term averages for the remainder of the
    season.

    (the above is from the Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Forecast)
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Roy

Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015

Source: Jeff Masters , 11:58 AM GMT on May 17, 2015

Super Typhoon Dolphin intensified into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a central pressure of 925 mb at 2 pm EDT Saturday May 16, becoming Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of the year. Dolphin hung on to Category 5 strength for twelve hours before increasing wind shear helped knock the storm down to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds by Sunday morning.  Read more
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CADO Admin

Canadian Hurricane Centre

The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) provides Canadians with meteorological information on hurricanes, tropical storms and post-tropical storms to help them make informed decisions to protect their safety and secure their property.

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Roy

The Storm after the Storm

Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-sandy-60-minutes-fraud-investigation/

 

When Hurricane Sandy made its way towards the East Coast in the fall of 2012, residents knew it could be devastating. What they didn't expect was just how bad Sandy turned out to be: 117 deaths, and damage estimated at more than $60 billion, second only to Katrina.

Now two and a half years later, Sandy victims have been hit by something else they didn't expect, the storm after the storm. Many of them say they have been cheated out of their insurance claims. Thousands of claims have still not been resolved and there is evidence that many homeowners were victims of what appears to be wide-scale fraud where original damage reports were later changed to make it look like the damage wasn't as bad. Making matters worse, appeals to the federal agency in charge of all of this, FEMA, went nowhere. Read more
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FEMA Sued Over Records Related To Superstorm Sandy Victims And Other Flood Insurance Claims

Source: IBT Media Inc

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency is facing a new lawsuit filed by a nonprofit organization that wants a look at FEMA’s inner workings, especially the way its officials decide the fate of insurance appeals made by flood victims.

United Policyholders, a San Francisco-based group that advocates for consumers of insurance products, sued FEMA in federal court in Washington this week. Brought under the Freedom of Information Act, the suit claims the agency has improperly withheld records related to its National Flood Insurance Program, or NFIP, the main source of flood coverage for U.S. homeowners."

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Roy

Hawaii and Hurricanes

“The last hurricane that hit Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, and Kauai took the brunt of the damage,” said Insurance Commissioner Gordon Ito. “Hurricane Iniki caused almost $2 billion in damages, which is about $3 billion in today’s dollars. It can take just one major storm to cause severe property damage, and we urge you to be prepared.”

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Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

Subject: Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles
Description

Follow this link for information on Hurricane and windstorm deductibles.

http://www.iii.org/issues_updates/hurricane-and-windstorm-deductibles.html

 


URL: http://www.iii.org/issues_updates/hurricane-and-windstorm-deductibles.html
Source: Insurance Information Institute
Site Section: Cane Page
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Historical Hurricane Tracks

Subject: Historical Hurricane Tracks
Description: The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data.
URL: http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
Source: NOAA
Site Section: Cane Page
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ICAT Damage Estimator

Subject: ICAT Damage Estimator
Description
From the site:

ICAT developed this website to provide easy access to historical hurricane damage information. All information is open source and based upon publicly available data. The data has been normalized to reflect current inflation, wealth, and population from what existed at the time of the actual storm activity.

It is our expectation that this website will be a useful tool to media sources, local, state, and federal public officials, the scientific and academic community, the insurance and reinsurance industries, and to other interested individuals.

For more information about navigating and searching the data in this website, see the “How to Use This Site” section. For details about the open source data, see the FAQ section.

ICAT extends special thanks to Joel Gratz formerly of ICAT Holdings for his initiative and vision to create and launch the ICAT Damage Estimator, and to Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado for his scientific and academic leadership, and his drive to deliver important and relevant information to the broader community.


URL: http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/
Source: ICAT
Site Section: Storm Reports
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Wind Speeds

  • Category One Hurricane - Sustained winds 74-95 mph
  • Category Two Hurricane - Sustained winds 96-110 mph
  • Category Three Hurricane  - Sustained winds 111-130 mph
  • Category Four Hurricane  - Sustained winds 131-155 mph
  • Category Five Hurricane  - Sustained winds greater than 155 mph,
     

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