Ray Hall
Veteran Member
Posts:898
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| 11 Sep 2008 01:22 AM |
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Brazoria County will order a man-vac @0800 Thursday. Looks like Freeport or Galveston on the 3 net work channels. TMOAS-H |
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Roy Estes
Member
Posts:51
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| 11 Sep 2008 02:02 AM |
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I still say Between Corpus Christi, and Bay City Texas Cat 2 at best! Id be willing to Place a bet of a 35' Tape measure to Anyone who guesses closer than My Guestamate Here.
Ill Pick Corpus Christi Texas, Pick your town ................ If Ike Makes Landfall (The Eye) wthin a 50 mile radius of my Pick you owe me, If Ike Hits within a 5 mile radious of your Pick Ill send you A 35' Tape measure.
I was wrong one time! .......................... hehehehehe!  |
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| "Each of us as human beings has a responsibility to reach out to help our brothers and sisters affected by disasters. One day it may be us or our loved ones needing someone to reach out and help." |
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Marc Dubois
Member
Posts:138
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| 11 Sep 2008 02:33 AM |
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No bet but for the sake of argument Cat 3 at Freeport. I haven't been wrong either. |
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Marc Dubois
Executive General Adjuster
M.G.D. Claim Services Inc.
"Your Commercial Claims Solution" |
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 11 Sep 2008 07:09 AM |
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check out this scientict on the weather channel:
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17152.html?from=hp_news
* Ike's move westward very unusual
* could be worse than Katrina
*wide storm, with potential big surge
*could change direction like Rita did
In my opinion, if the unusual pressure that made it go west eases up, it could move north and make a direct hit on Houston.
This might have only a 5% chance, but if it does it will be a big mess- and that's just the last minute evacuation...
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jasper seale
New Forum User
Posts:21
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| 11 Sep 2008 11:54 AM |
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As of 4am CST, it is interesting that the pressure is so low but the wind speed is till only 100 mph. Maybe the wind field is so large it is taking time to twist the mph of the wind up the central pressure of this storm? |
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 11 Sep 2008 03:30 PM |
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from this mornings wall street journal:
Houston officials ordered mandatory evacuations starting at noon Thursday after the forecast for Hurricane Ike took a sharp northward turn overnight, placing a major hurricane at the doorstep of one of the nation's largest metropolitan regions.
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 11 Sep 2008 03:49 PM |
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Jasper, that's what I read too. It's so large it takes more time to wind up. This is a larger storm than people realize.
I think there is a "hurricane fatigue" right now- people are tired of hearing about hurricanes and the news media is a little late on giving Ike the coverage he deserves.
The media has also been very busy lately covering political insults.
It's going to be very difficult to evacuate Houston and Galveston on short notice. Didn't more people die from the Rita evacuation than the actual storm? |
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 11 Sep 2008 08:01 PM |
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OK, did I win the tape measure? I did mention Houston....
I would like a 35' fat max, the kind with the heavy duty blade that real contractors use. I still have one from Katrina and it is all twisted up.
Thank you. |
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Ray Hall
Veteran Member
Posts:898
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| 11 Sep 2008 08:56 PM |
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Galveston is under man-vac the whole island. I-45 is a parking lot to past Conroe. Not a genarater within 200 miles. This will be the largest storm in history of insurance. Many of these small companies will fail. I have a very small pure Mutual fire & EC policy instead of a HO. Hope my house is not smashed by one of these 100 foot tree, for that matter I hope my wife and I live through IKE. When we get power I will tell CADDO how our bodies came through. I know a few more prayers will help.
I may even keep a diary. |
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Ray Hall
Veteran Member
Posts:898
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| 11 Sep 2008 09:01 PM |
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A bud said FEMA said the surge would be 15 feet at the beach. Their goes West Beach and Tiki houses, several thousand many in the 50-100K range a few hundred above 1 mil. and several in the 300-500K range. |
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Roy Estes
Member
Posts:51
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| 11 Sep 2008 09:22 PM |
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Posted By Leland Coontz on 09/11/2008 3:01 PM
OK, did I win the tape measure? I did mention Houston....
I would like a 35' fat max, the kind with the heavy duty blade that real contractors use. I still have one from Katrina and it is all twisted up.
Thank you.
HA HA LELAND, ACTUALLY WE ARE STAGING ADJUSTERS IN DALLAS & MOBILE, FROM LA. AND PLACING HUNDREDS ON DEPLOYMENT NOTICE AS OF 1 HOUR AGO. RAY MAY BE RIGHT, FREEPORT IS A STRONG CANDIDATE. GET READY TO GO TO WORK LADIES AND GENTS. ..... SEE YA THERE!
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| "Each of us as human beings has a responsibility to reach out to help our brothers and sisters affected by disasters. One day it may be us or our loved ones needing someone to reach out and help." |
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Ray Hall
Veteran Member
Posts:898
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| 11 Sep 2008 11:37 PM |
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The local weather folks think San Louis Pass, that make Houston more vulnerable. Cat 3, ETA 0100 sat |
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Les Lammers
New Forum User
Posts:3
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| 12 Sep 2008 12:41 AM |
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Ray, keep your head down and be safe.  One vendor wanted a comittment to be in Dalllas Saturday morning.....right. 
I never try to predict landfall...there are just too many variables. I was watching TV when Charley made the turn into Charlotte Harbor instead of going to Tampa. |
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peter burch
Member
Posts:180
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| 12 Sep 2008 12:50 AM |
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| Still sliding down the razorblade of life. |
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roni jones
New Forum User
Posts:24
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| 12 Sep 2008 02:18 AM |
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Posted By Leland Coontz on 09/11/2008 3:01 PM
OK, did I win the tape measure? I did mention Houston....
I would like a 35' fat max, the kind with the heavy duty blade that real contractors use. I still have one from Katrina and it is all twisted up.
Thank you.
I only use my fatmax for flood lines and contertops now that I have a disto....
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Larry Hardin
Member
Posts:476
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| 12 Sep 2008 03:21 AM |
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Ray,
Might I suggest a 3 or 4 day vacation in Lawton, OK?? The skiing is great this time of year. Water skiing, that is.
Happy Trails |
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| Larry D Hardin |
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Steve Beaumont
Founding Member
Member
Posts:330
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| 12 Sep 2008 02:46 PM |
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I know that area like the back of my hand, and if the eye went in at the San Luis Pass or anywhere within 5 miles of that, it would be the worst place for it to hit for the Houston Metro area. That would put at least 80% of the metro popuulation in the right front quadrant of the storm, and that is about 10 miles west of where I-45 comes into Galveston. I would do away with a good chunK of the beach property on the west beach area and a lot of the property on the West bay side. Basically the way they are talking it will bury over 50% of that island under about 10-15' of water. The major surge would hit the east end of the island that has a seas wall (built after the 1900 storm), but the amount of water they are predicting will over top that wall. What is worse yet is a huge chunk of the gulf will be pushed into Galveston Bay, which is heavily populated on the west and north sides. The surge from that bay can create a lot of damages to not only residential and commercial concerns, but there are a ton of chemical plants, refineries and shipping concerns in the north and northwestern part of the bay. if this thing hits as a 3 near the San Luis Pass, I would bet serious $ there there will be more claim #'s then came out of Katrina. Also keep in mind that there are a ton of wind exclusion in the 1st tier counties in TX (coastal) and most of that is written through TWIA. For those of you lucky enough to work for them, there will be plenty of work and by everything I've seen and heard, Reggie Warren runs an excellent operation. Probably can't beat their set up. |
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 12 Sep 2008 04:00 PM |
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Are the yucky chemicals(some quite dangerous) and oils going to spread over the housing a la St. Bernard? What do think, those of you who know the area?
(And Roni, if it does get all yucky you're not supposed to use the same tape for flood lines that you use for countertops, at least not if there's food on the counter...) |
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Ray Hall
Veteran Member
Posts:898
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| 12 Sep 2008 06:20 PM |
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Flood adjusters & TWIA adjusters will be overwhelmed with claims. It will be a lot of wind damage for 200 miles inland. Looks like IKE will go up I-45 to Dallas. Right thru downtown Houston. Houston floods fast from 10 inch rains and a lot of rain fall out flood claims. Lots of inland marine loss on finished and raw stock in all the warehouses. Lots of autos. Lots of dwelling roofs. Lots of wind driven rain. Lots of boats. Lots of brown water marine. Lots of P & I liability. This is the mother of all hurricanes.
Some of the vendors who work TWIA follow :ABJ adjusters in Houston, Cunningham Lindsey Houston, Sabine Claim Service Beaumont, Brush Country Claims in Alice. All the big flood adjusters will be here for months. All the Lloyds connected adjusters will be here over one year. Houston has many of the Homestead, Sun, Extended Stay etc type short term stay lodges. Lots of corparate apartments bt property managers who go after ALE biz. Lots of unfurnished apartments. Good sports, good churches, good food a good large city. Bad traffic. I welcome all good adjusters and all new adjusters, please come in give us a hand to recover.The people in this area are hard working and not real pushy, just explain what you can and cannot do. All the district judges in Harris County are Republican. We are not afraid to go to court.
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Leland Coontz
Member
Posts:108
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| 12 Sep 2008 06:31 PM |
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some luck very last minute evacuees:
GALVESTON, Texas - The Coast Guard began airlifting residents from their homes this morning at Bolivar Penninsula, Texas to High Island, Texas after the wind and rain from Hurricane Ike became too much for the residents to withstand early Friday, Sept. 12, 2008.
Coast Guard Air Station Houston launched a HH-65C rescue helicopter and crew to airlift and transport approximately 22 to 50 people, who wish to evacuate, to High Island, Texas.
They are lucky they could still get through on the phone.
I'm note sure how great it is to go from one island to another, but maybe "High Island" really is higher ground.
Question for Ray- will the ship channel clog with debris? sunken boats?
If so that will have several repurcussions:
possibly longer BI claims
more difficulty repairing industrial sites
shift of cargo to other US ports
what do you think? |
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