After storm lull, scientists warn of red-flag October

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By ROBERT P. KING

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 30, 2007

So far, so quiet, so good.

But while Floridians bask in their second hurricane-free year in a row - knock on plywood - meteorologists warn that the threat from the tropics may be about to ramp up.October typically brings a shift in the tropics' steering winds, pushing hurricanes into Florida from the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean instead of the Atlantic.The western Caribbean still is loaded with the deep, abundant warm water that fueled Hurricanes Dean and Felix to Category 5 strength in August.The expected return of the La Niña global climate pattern, which encourages Atlantic hurricane formation, could keep the season humming well into November.Nobody is predicting a copy of the record-breaking 2005 season, which coughed up its last tropical storm on New Year's Eve. But the season could spawn something like Hurricane Wilma, which exploded near the Yucatan Peninsula before sweeping across Florida on Oct. 24 that year.The upshot: Floridians might keep eyeing storm maps and restocking their bottled-water supplies even after they've finished the Halloween candy."One or two more major hurricanes is very possible," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "I would think we'd have a high chance of a hurricane coming out of the Caribbean and possibly threatening Florida."Officially, the Atlantic basin's hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity hitting in mid-September. But that doesn't mean Floridians can relax."October is the biggest threat for the state of Florida - more than August, more than September," Landsea said.Similar warnings came this month from Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, who said they expect October and November to produce five named storms, more than double the average. They predicted that two of the storms would become hurricanes, one of them major.Besides Wilma, past October surprises include Hurricane Irene, which swamped Palm Beach County in 1999, and Hurricane Opal, which tore up the Panhandle in 1995.
One of the Atlantic basin's deadliest storms on record struck in October 1998, when Hurricane Mitch killed more than 11,000 people in Honduras and Nicaragua. It later swept through Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast as a tropical storm.This year's storms have largely spared Florida, though the state had brushes with Subtropical Storm Andrea in May, Tropical Storm Barry in June and Tropical Depression 10 on Sept. 21.But elsewhere, this year has set at least one milestone: Dean and Felix were the first two Atlantic hurricanes to make landfall as Category 5 storms during the same season, according to records dating to 1851.The 13 named storms this year, including four hurricanes, are more than the long-term average of 10 storms a season.This season "is going to be ranking as one of the most historic," said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for the New York-based company Weather 2000, which produces forecasts for the energy industry and other clients. "What we've been warning our clients is that the waters have been phenomenally warm in the Gulf of Mexico" and other regions nearby, Schlacter said. "We kind of use the phrase 'We expect to be surprised.' ... That should be the expected thing, for storms to explode."Water warmer than 80 degrees is potent fuel for hurricanes, and Landsea said it's more than 100 feet deep in the western Caribbean. That means passing hurricanes keep stirring up warm water - not the cold, discouraging water they might churn elsewhere in the Atlantic."We know that the western Caribbean is a source of essentially unlimited energy for hurricanes to tap into," Landsea said.
Schlacter said he hopes people won't take false comfort from storms this year that failed to meet some predictions.

"October is just as dangerous a month as August is," he said, "and it should be in people's minds."

Does anyone else feel like we should have had a funeral for Karen and Melissa?

i had high hopes for karen too...i remember seeing her when she was a newborn...just about to open her eye.....lol

 

How about them apples!

I am looking at my calender from Eberl's that has all of the hurricane's listed. We are looking at 92L to form a hurricane this Sunday. There have been few hurricanes after that date: October 15, 1954 - Hurricane Hazel hit the border of NC/SC and on October 29, 1985 Hurricane Juan hit the Central Louisiana Coast. If a hurricane hits the USA this month I do not believe it will produce a large amount of claims and the venders will most likely only call up those with experience.

This has been a strange year for claims in Northeast Texas as they are fewer than last year and they have been mostly wind and lightning. I need a hail storm that will damage my entire terriitory.

My call on the season......It's gonna be a bust.

I got into adjusting as a side business in 2002. I m still down far enough on the call list to get called to be ready but then the claims (like the midwest this year) just aren't quite enough for that one extra adjuster to go out. Of course you who have been in the business longer get the work and hopefully you got enough to float you if the season is a bust as it appears. Not everyone can work.

The no storms and what to do in the meantime? I saved and probably don't have to work for another 2 years however I am way to bored having to cut back on what I can do.

For me I have had enough of making small amounts of money running day claims for IA firms acting like you are on their payroll having nothing better to do than say how hi when they say jump. In at least half the claims, I get to drive for hours on end for a small fee. So far no 3 firms can come up with enough claims to make the occasional work make sense.

I now see we IAs seem to be the red headed step child of the insurance industry. The CAT work is great but the day claim thing is a joke.

Another opportunity is knocking. It's back to regular work and excellent pay and benefits in another industry for now. I have liked the freedom that this work brings in the off time, but I like many of you I have had way to much time off from earning decent money.

Best of luck to all of you hoping for storms. I will be one less in the way of someone needing to make money.

If the robust (PC) lady is getting ready to sing....she will have to drag me onto stage with her and she will have to stop me from placing a gag on her mouth. Bottom of the ninth, but we still can pull it out!! Ever hoping for a late season turn around.