Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Catastrophe Central
TD 03 Chantal? 2B
Last Post 02 Aug 2007 06:55 PM by peter burch. 5 Replies.
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peter burchUser is Offline
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31 Jul 2007 04:23 AM  

98L is now a TD and on the navy site as no name, usually indicting an upgrade,  BUT this is a fish, will be short lived and just miss Bermuda. Might even visit England as heavy rains later this week.. 99L is more promising tonight, possible a stronger storm and into the Caribean, Time will tell.  We are still ahead of average this year.

Still sliding down the razorblade of life.
Ray HallUser is Offline
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31 Jul 2007 05:44 AM  

3200 miles East of Galveston 99L and one model has the Yucatan as landfall.

Jud GardnerUser is Offline
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31 Jul 2007 05:42 PM  

If the wave at 50w, 13n continues to move in a west direction and stay out of the north, it could develop.  The recent frames show good circulation.  There's 20 kts of wind shear about 350 miles to the north of its center.

peter burchUser is Offline
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31 Jul 2007 05:58 PM  
Don't take out the 2nd mortgage for travel money on this one. Very dry air ahead and the grae yard of the eastern Caribean. But if it moistens up the atmosphere for future waves, it will help furture storm developement.
Still sliding down the razorblade of life.
Jud GardnerUser is Offline
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02 Aug 2007 05:53 PM  

Last year's Tropical Storm Ernesto looked kind of like the invest I mentioned above.  This wave is now a TD (Invest 99I) which has moved beyond the windward islands in the graveyard of the carribean.  Ernesto was initially forecast to hit waaay in south Texas and the forecasts continued to adjust it more than once daily until it went straight up the nose of the Fl peninsula.  This thunderstorm could still easily dissipate.

peter burchUser is Offline
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02 Aug 2007 06:55 PM  
99L is not a TD, At this moment it a large open wave with some potential. There is no closed LLC although that could change. From the last discusion:
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E CARIB IS MOVING
WWD NEAR 20 KT. A SATELLITE LOOP BEGINNING AT 00Z TODAY SHOWS
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 64W-70W. WHILE CONVECTION IS
IMPRESSIVE IT REMAINS CHALLENGING TO FIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM.
Still sliding down the razorblade of life.
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