Steve Zibilich
Member
Posts:46
 |
| 16 Sep 2007 11:24 PM |
|
Starting to look like a second year of no major storms, no major hail and lean times for IA's out there... It appears that the so-called "forecasters" sufficiently scared the US Population into thinking that Al Gore was right, and the so-called global warming would increase the frequency and intensity of storms. It appears that, for a second year in a row, "all is quiet on the Western Front".
The cooler weather has already begun permeating the upper half of the 'lower 48'. Minnesota, Indiana and Maine recorded record low temps for the last two nights, and a cold front has pushed all the way down into the Gulf of Mexico. Does this mark the "end" of our chances for a land-falling hurricane this year???
I started this thread to get feedback and input on your thoughts regarding another year of "sit and wait".
Anyone have any thoughts on this potentially disasterous financial situation for IA's???
Got another "gig" lined up for the long, cold winter?
Did you save up enough "scratch" to get by until (hopefully) Hail Season '08?
Can you say... "Wal-Mart Greeter"?
|
|
|
|
|
R .D. Hood
Founding Member
Member
Posts:231
|
| 17 Sep 2007 05:15 AM |
|
Always remember this " It ain't over till the fat lady sings" and she has not even got onto the stage as yet.
Just wait till Oct and Nov and then sing your song................................................................. |
|
| "Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new... Albert Einstein" |
|
|
Nick Angelides
New Forum User
Posts:24
|
| 17 Sep 2007 07:17 AM |
|
yeah, i have to agree with RD. The fat lady has not sung yet. she may be making her way to the stage though... 
we almost had work with Humberto.... and Ingrid still may make it. If ingrid can stay together for just one more day through the heavy wind shear she is experiencing now she will see very favorable conditions for development.
there is also very favorible conditions developing in the southern GOM right now.
it would be nice to use this xactimate 25 im paying so dearly for and my new license i paid for,,,,,,,, ;/ |
|
|
|
|
Steve Beaumont
Founding Member
Member
Posts:330
|
| 17 Sep 2007 12:55 PM |
|
I agree with Dave, don't say it is over until it is over. That's like claiming in April that the wind and hail season is over. There have been a fair amount of hurricanes in the last 2 weeks of September and the month of October that have generated a lot of claims for adjusters to work. As for your questions, the slow season on top of the slow season lst year is very damaging financially and emotionally to almost all IA's who haven't worked as much as they wanted to or needed to. I'd guess a lot of the adjusters in our ranks have gone on to other jobs, and it is unknown how many will come back to adjusting whenever a large volumn producing storm hits. This is a perfect example for all cat IA's to learn that when you are working and making money, bank as much as you can and save for the lean times. This period is not the slowest there has been in the last 25 years or so, and I guarantee it won't be the last of the lean time frames. A couple reasons that it seems to have more impact is the large influx of new adjusters from the 04 and 05 storms that hit the ranks, and the aditiional staffing up that the carriers did on their cat teams as a result of those storms. That makes for more cat IA's out of work for a season that is probably busier then it was in 2000. I can't stress enough that when you are working try to save as much as you can out of that storm, because you never know what is ahead in this business. |
|
|
|
|
William Matz
New Forum User
Posts:2
|
| 18 Sep 2007 07:53 PM |
|
One reporter on The Weather Channel did some research and found that the longest time period where no hurricanes hit the USA was 3 years and 10 months. As the prior posts indicate, YOU have to be able to "weather the (financial) storm". |
|
|
|
|
peter burch
Member
Posts:180
|
| 18 Sep 2007 08:16 PM |
|
93L into the gulf?, could this become Jerry. Tonight we need all adjusters to go outside and when the first star appears say "I believe in Hurricanes, I believe in Hurrcanes" |
|
| Still sliding down the razorblade of life. |
|
|
jasper seale
New Forum User
Posts:21
|
| 18 Sep 2007 10:09 PM |
|
heading to the gulf?--lets help it out--because we Really NEED some help!
Someone needs to sacrifice a goat!, I would say a lamb—but nobody down south seems to have a lamb!
Lots of storm clouds with this one--justs needs some help to get into the gulf, while the system holds together |
|
|
|
|
jasper seale
New Forum User
Posts:21
|
| 18 Sep 2007 10:13 PM |
|
You know, Florida is not that wide! |
|
|
|
|
Forrest Taylor
New Forum User
Posts:16
|
| 19 Sep 2007 03:20 AM |
|
I'm going to get two smoke bombs and hold one in either hand while turning counterclockwise and chanting on a map of Florida.
That should do the trick.
If I spend the extra money and get the really big ones that allow me to twirl for 5 minutes or so it should mean we end up with a CAT 4 or better. |
|
|
|
|
stephanie wells
Member
Posts:63
|
| 19 Sep 2007 03:46 AM |
|
I'm still holding out hope for October. |
|
|
|
|
Michael McAlister
New Forum User
Posts:2
|
| 19 Sep 2007 07:59 AM |
|
I believe the best hope for work will not be 93L. October and the wave off Africa seems a little more hopeful (unless it runs due west like most have coming South of the 10 lat line). Our current "major windstorm dances" may will be lost on a Cat 1 producing little claim activity. Keep the faith friends and hope for a nice Cat 3 that gives us all a few months work, but does not displace a bunch of homeowners, and look for the La Nina forming at the end of the year to make next year what we have all held out for. I'm not giving an admission of seasonal defeat. The fat lady has not sung, and hopefully she just took a step into the Atlantic. Stay tight and keep your dimes in your pocket!!! |
|
|
|
|
Rob Banks
Member
Posts:84
|
| 19 Sep 2007 02:14 PM |
|
I still say we will get hit by a (work-generating) hurricane before the season is over. |
|
| claims-adjusting.com - The Online Community for Claims Adjusters |
|
|
Malvi Lennon
Member
Posts:38
|
| 19 Sep 2007 02:47 PM |
|
Well until now every time there has been a possibility for deployment I have been very proactive making sure all the laundry was done and ready to pack, shelves were stocked at home for my daughter, etc etc. This time I refuse to prepare. Let the hamper overflow and Lely can do her own shopping, maybe now a storm will really come around.
Malvi
|
|
|
|
|
peter burch
Member
Posts:180
|
| 23 Sep 2007 03:45 PM |
|
Fat ladies taken a coffee break this week (or more) lot to watch today
Jerry may visit Greenland but a fish storm for us. 94L, will it develop or just give Texas some flooding rains. 96L looks like a late season CV storm, into the island or fish? 97L if it develops its into the islands then?? Texas?? |
|
| Still sliding down the razorblade of life. |
|
|
Michael McAlister
New Forum User
Posts:2
|
| 23 Sep 2007 04:43 PM |
|
I'll take door number 3
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml |
|
|
|
|
stephanie wells
Member
Posts:63
|
| 23 Sep 2007 07:20 PM |
|
The fat lady needs to take a long long vacation |
|
|
|
|
S Sims
Member
Posts:37
|
| 23 Sep 2007 09:31 PM |
|
Guys,
We live in Florida if it helps...my hubby and I will do the same...
Sherry |
|
|
|
|
Marc Dubois
Member
Posts:138
|
| 28 Sep 2007 10:05 PM |
|
Well I hate to be the pessimist but I'm considering a real full time claims managers job. Really don't wanna hit the corporate world again but we gotta eat. Anyone out there think that taking a full time job is foolish at this time in the 07 season? I don't think its gonna happen this year. |
|
Marc Dubois
Executive General Adjuster
M.G.D. Claim Services Inc.
"Your Commercial Claims Solution" |
|
|
Les Lammers
Member
Posts:55
|
| 28 Sep 2007 10:45 PM |
|
Posted By Marc Dubois on 09/28/2007 5:05 PM
Well I hate to be the pessimist but I'm considering a real full time claims managers job. Really don't wanna hit the corporate world again but we gotta eat. Anyone out there think that taking a full time job is foolish at this time in the 07 season? I don't think its gonna happen this year.
Marc,
I don't think it is foolish at all. This business has changed tremendously, and not for the better, in the 15 years I have worked storms. Frankly, I am considering leaving the business and pursuing other endeavors.
I am in Florida and the new exclusions to most homeowners policies is going to result in much smaller fee bills with more aggravation.Commercial has not changed much.
If there is an event it will have to be in a heavily populated area that has not been hit recently for it to be worthwhile.
Les
|
|
|
|
|
Steve Zibilich
Member
Posts:46
|
| 01 Oct 2007 01:27 AM |
|
I hate to say it... Sounds like the fat lady is warming up in the green room...
October 1st, and all is quiet on the Atlantic Front.
Oh, and I did predict the Saints 0-3 start accurately as well. Superbowl Saints my behind. |
|
|
|
|