tropical storm center located near 11.6n 41.0w at 14/2100z position accurate within 30 nm present movement toward the west or 265 degrees at 18 kt estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 34 kt....... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw. 12 ft seas.. 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant. Repeat...center located near 11.6n 41.0w at 14/2100z at 14/1800z center was located near 11.6n 40.2w forecast valid 15/0600z 11.7n 43.6w Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt. 34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw. Forecast valid 15/1800z 12.0n 46.9w Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt. 34 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw. Forecast valid 16/0600z 12.3n 50.2w Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt. 50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw. 34 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw. Forecast valid 16/1800z 12.6n 53.5w Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt. 50 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw. 34 kt... 75ne 40se 0sw 75nw. Forecast valid 17/1800z 14.0n 59.5w Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt. 50 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw. 34 kt...100ne 70se 40sw 100nw. Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day outlook valid 18/1800z 15.5n 64.5w Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt. Outlook valid 19/1800z 17.5n 69.5w Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt. Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.6n 41.0w next advisory at 15/0300z $$ forecaster Landsea/Knabb
5:00 PM update
880 WTNT44 KNHC 142053 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 DEAN'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS WANED AND REMAINS ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. BOTH TAFB AND SAB GAVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHILE AN AMSU PASS AT 1623 UTC SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER INTENSITY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE INTENSITY OF DEAN IS KEPT AT 35 KT. INITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN THE LAST ADVISORY. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER AND LESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED. DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF... GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. BY DAY 5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 46.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 12.3N 50.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 53.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 64.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 69.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
11:00 PM Update
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150254 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE FORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.0N 42.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W 90 KT120HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Looks like it is probable that we may get to do what we do best...help folks whose lives may be turned upside down due to catastrophic weather get their homes and lives back to normal.... Hopefully this thing goes psycho and just becomes a fish storm.
According to the weatherunderground historical tracking map, Dean is in good company, being at the same place, same time, and general conditions as Andrew and Betsy. However, also in the model are a couple of fish.
NOW HURRICANE DEAN!!!
000 WTNT24 KNHC 161443 TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2007 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Here is a dynamic picture for Dean's Forecast:
Do not forget that there will be alot more crying if it does, but for different reasons. There will be peoples lives that will be different and let no one forget that....
In my opinion this time tomorrow the GFDL will fall back in line with the rest of the models which indicate a target of Mexico. It looks like the U.S may dodge another bullet and it is back to the cheese line for adjusters who choose to chase Canes.
tick-tot---tick-toc---maybe we will know something by sunday---gotta wait and see
Based on the last three readings Dean has started to shift a little to the north, Tracker
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