Roy Cupps CatAdjuster.org
 Member
 Posts:339
 | | 08 Dec 2007 12:56 AM |
| Well, believe it or not it's out. Don't get excited about this, IMO it's way earlier. Dr. Gray Dr.Klotzbach and the team have posted their forecast. Here are the numbers.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | 7 December 2007 Forecast for 2008 | Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 13 | Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) | 60 | Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 7 | Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) | 30 | Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) | 3 | Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) | 6 | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 115 | Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) | 125 |
Probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas: 1) Entire U.S. coastline - 60% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 37% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean You can download the forecast here How do the December Forecast numbers compare to actual numbers? The table below shows the number of Hurricanes over the last six years. | Year | Dec Forecast | Actual | | 2002 | 8 | 4 | | 2003 | 8 | 7 | | 2004 | 7 | 9 | | 2005 | 6 | 14 | | 2006 | 9 | 3 | | 2007 | 7 | 6 | | | | |
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Marc Dubois
 Member
 Posts:138
 | | 09 Dec 2007 03:34 PM |
| | Why is it that forecasters are wrong so often and yet get to keep on predicting? Please give me a break but their batting average has been a source of consternation for a good number of people dependent on their accuracy to eat. As weather patterns are cyclical they'll get it right one of these years. | | Marc Dubois Executive General Adjuster M.G.D. Claim Services Inc. "Your Commercial Claims Solution" | |
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Larry Hardin
 Member
 Posts:399
 | | 09 Dec 2007 08:28 PM |
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I forcast that it's gonna rain on most of the USofA next year. I also forcast that there will be water and wind claims in most of the cities in the USofA next year.
I are one o' them perfesshionel prognosticators | | | Larry D Hardin | |
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Larry Wright
 Member
 Posts:62
 | | 09 Dec 2007 09:06 PM |
| The average actual #s from previous years were 35% different from the forecasts. With those averages and a prediction of 7 hurricanes next year we could assume there will be between 4 and 10. Now that is really usefull information to someone I am sure. I am just not sure who that might be.
| | | No one is absolutely worthless, at the very least you can serve as a bad example. | |
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Jud Gardner
 Member
 Posts:139
 | | 09 Dec 2007 10:49 PM |
| I think it's quite clear really, what this game is all about. Winston Churchill often and precisely described the messy game of politics. I'm certain he would be especially satisfied with the substitution of "Meteorology" for "Politics": "Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."
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Rocke Baker
 Member
 Posts:53
 | | 10 Dec 2007 01:55 AM |
| | As for me, IF and When it looks like a storm is going to hit then I'll begin to get hopeful. Not going to pay any attention to what any "expert" says. Otherwise, just keep on keeping on with whatever you are doing as there is nothing we can do to change any weather. If any type of storm hits, it hits. | | | |
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Terry Guillory
 Member
 Posts:21
 | | 10 Dec 2007 02:20 AM |
| | You just never know in this business when the call will come. Last year at this time, actually on Dec. 16th, I got a call and spent the next two months in Seattle working a windstom. It was cold, wet and I did not know there had even been a storm there. When you least expect it, it will be time to hit the road...Hope everyone get the chance to get some work this winter.... | | | |
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peter burch
 Member
 Posts:177

 | | 10 Dec 2007 02:37 AM |
| Just when we start to talk about 08 it's time for 94L, could this be another TD, yes it could. | | | Still sliding down the razorblade of life. | |
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Kevin Sellers
 Member
 Posts:2
 | | 30 Dec 2007 07:08 PM |
| Mother Nature is one of the reasons I wanted in this profession. She can be extremely violent, but at other times, be as gentle as a babys behind. The key to this job as with any other is being prepared when opportunity knocks and not be afraid to open the door. With the problems in the mid-west, our family knew that if I was needed to go out at Christmas time, I was gone. I love my family, and am willing to sacrifice some of my time in order to help those that need it. As for hurricanes, I was extremely dissappointed this year, but also hoped for there to be no loss of life. This will be my hardest obstacle to deal with. I know I am prepared for the job, I just hope I dont have to deal with a family that has lost a family member. | | | |
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Bob Harvey
 Member
 Posts:406

 | | 30 Dec 2007 07:20 PM |
| I just hope I dont have to deal with a family that has lost a family member. You will run into that more often just doing daily claims - fender benders + homeowners property losses.
In 17 years, I have done lot's of fatal car wrecks, fatal work comp invests, and a BBQ person in a house fire. People are more likely to lose a family member going to work than a Cat-5 hurricane, with the whole town talking about evacuation.
Remember, the day after Katrina CNN was broadcasting from the French Quarter about how they had been spared. The storm eye was closer to the Mississippi border. Then the levee failed, and the people were trapped in attic's etc. You won't see something of that magnitude in your lifetime - but you will see fatal claims as a daily claim adjuster. I was working flood claims near where the eye of Katrina hit, and had no fatal claims. Virtually everyone I talked to had evacuated. In the 9th ward, people didn't have cars, and the public transportation wasn't there for them. That is not a normal scenario. There is a photo in the adjuster gallery under "Katrina" that shows the spray paint on the front of the house "1 in attic". Adjusters that worked New Orleans will have those stories. You can see some of the photos I just put in the gallery from Slidell to Covington, LA which was hit hard. One house had 6 trees in the living room. I have been looking at hurricanes since 1992 and never met a homeowner injured by hurricane - let alone fatal. | | | |
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Tom Toll Life Member
 Advanced Member
 Posts:988
 | | 30 Dec 2007 11:20 PM |
| For many years, while working aviation claims, I was involved quite often with fatialities, sometimes multiple. It was not easy and as a consequence of seeing too many very badly mutilated bodies, my brain said, that is enough. Fatalities are hard on anyone, but having to deal with the families and often shedding tears with them, your mind has a tendency to shut down. That is the reason I left aviation claims adjusting. 25 years of that and finally worked a loss where two friends of mine went into a spin, crashed on a golf course in Little Rock, while all the time I was listening to the tower and the fear in the pilots voice as he knew he had developed vertigo. He did not have an IFR license to fly in that soup, (fog). I got to the golf course some 20 minutes after the crash and discovered it was a friend of mine and his wife. I covered their mutilated bodies with as much material that I could find and waited for the FAA to get there. That was it for me. I ended up handling the claim and that was the final touch. So far, I have not had to work with a family that lost a family member in a hurricane, but have in a tornado event. I guess it just goes with this job, unfortunately. Sometimes you have got to be resilient in this business. It is hard enough for families to lose all they have worked for, much less death. | | | Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts. | |
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Mike Kunze
 Member
 Posts:443
 | | 31 Dec 2007 01:59 AM |
| Yes, dealing with claims of the deceased are never easy. But there's a big difference when the claim is a result of the death and not property damage of the deceased. Being called out to an auto accident scene and witnessing the mess, and then meeting with the claimants' family later is a much more emotional process. Or meeting with the family of the child who drowned in the baby sitter's swimming pool, or the child who was mauled by the pit bull down the street that was not on a leash and chain, or the worker who died when a trench caved in on him. My very first year in this profession as a staff adjuster presented me with 8 such occasions, and the 7 other adjusters and my state manager learned along with me. They all had several years more experience, but between them combined had not received that many fatality claims in their careers. But thanks to their help, and the authority that my employer allowed this young adjuster (at that time), only 1 of those cases became attorney represented. More fatalities were to follow, but then like Tom, the gray hairs arrived early and this adjuster found the jadedness steering him away from handling those types of claims. | | | |
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peter burch
 Member
 Posts:177

 | | 31 Dec 2007 02:09 AM |
| "There is a photo in the adjuster gallery under "Katrina" that shows the spray paint on the front of the house "1 in attic"." In spite of the fact I have been in this industry a while, it always causes a funny feeling in the stomach when you run into a situation where someone died. When I entered to house in the photo, the insured was not able to be there (Lakeview). He had not warned me that his tenant had died. As I walked into the kitchen I didn't notice the fridge was open, and caught a lungfull of the smell. It was very difficult to complete the inspection. I did find out the story later on. The tenant was an elderly lady, her car was still parked in the car port. She had pets and couldn't take them to the shelter; she stayed for her animals, She must have climbed into the attic to escape the water. No idea how many days she survived. It can be very easy to forget we are dealing with people not just buildings ( or cars). | | | Still sliding down the razorblade of life. | |
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Bob Harvey
 Member
 Posts:406

 | | 31 Dec 2007 03:39 AM |
| | I was wondering if that was your photo. Since the site changed - now I know you are truly "older than dirt". As I walked into the kitchen I didn't notice the fridge was open, and caught a lungfull of the smell. Yeah, no kidding. Seems most of the folks in Louisiana had a 2nd fridge or freezer full of seafood... Yuk-O-rama. I was really glad to have a laser Disto to take those measurements quickly, without the slurp on the tape measure - and get outside for a breath of humid but fresh air. | | | |
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Rocke Baker
 Member
 Posts:53
 | | 31 Dec 2007 11:54 PM |
| Like Tom and Mike have said, it is never easy handling any claim where someone or a pet has perished.
Before I got into this profession, I was in public safety. Dealing with fatalities where someone was shot to death, extracting someone from an auto accident or handling a heart attack who went on you while you were talking to them It was hard but you could handle those unless it was a child. All the time I was lucky and never handled a scene where a child was killed.
Since I got into adjusting, I have had my share of fatalities and sadly two cases where a child perished in a fire. Those to me were the most difficult and gut wrenching to handle. Maybe my mind takes weird turns on the children fatalities, but going into the room where they were found sent chills through me. Just like any firefighter, police officer or paramedic, I think "This child never had a chance to be something." Maybe they would have found the cure for cancers, be a great statesman, teacher, whatever. They never got the chance.
May you never have to handle that type of loss. If you do, do not be afraid to talk about later it if it bothers you. Compassion came pouring out when I met the parents of one of the children and even today I remember them. The other, a neighbor opened the door for me.
May everyone have a safe and sound new year. | | | |
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Mike Kunze
 Member
 Posts:443
 | | 01 Jan 2008 12:04 AM |
| Actually, paremedics, police officers, ER personnel, etc., go through a lot of emotional turmoil too on these losses. In fact, more often and regularly than adjusters do. But adjusters then have to face the families and surviving witnesses to these tragedies in the days/weeks/months that follow...and as a representative of the responsible party. Cases of clear cut liability don't make it any easier for anyone involved, and writing a check doesn't wash it away. Those memories are always there. | | | |
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Larry Hardin
 Member
 Posts:399
 | | 01 Jan 2008 04:35 PM |
| A couple of years ago, I worked a tornado in Arkansas.
Two of my claims had deceased family members that died in the house that collapsed.
Very, very difficult.
Been there,..............don't want to go again. | | | Larry D Hardin | |
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Bob Harvey
 Member
 Posts:406

 | | 01 Jan 2008 04:59 PM |
| I hear ya. It seems a tornado gives less warning before it hits, compared to a big 'ol hurricane crawling across the ocean toward the mainland.
And a tornado will keep some adjusters busy - but the narrow focus of damage would not bring out the typical wave of catastrophe adjusters like a hurricane. It's more of a surgical strike. | | | |
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Steve Zibilich
 Member
 Posts:46
 | | 03 Jan 2008 01:20 AM |
| | Too early to tell. Absolutely no indicators present one way or the other. Hope we can all get to work really soon. | | | |
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Ray Hall
 Advanced Member
 Posts:852
 | | 03 Jan 2008 08:10 PM |
| Never worked a storm or fire claim with a death involved. Worked several auto, general liability, workers comp. | | | |
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