Friday, September 05, 2008
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Subject: 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast
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Roy CuppsUser is Offline
CatAdjuster.org
Texarkana, TX
Member
Posts:327


12/07/2007 7:56 PM  

Well, believe it or not it's out.  Don't get excited about this, IMO it's way earlier.

Dr. Gray Dr.Klotzbach and the team have posted their forecast.  Here are the numbers.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)

7 December 2007

Forecast for 2008

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

13

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

60

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

7

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

30

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)

3

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)

6

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)

115

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

125

Probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 60% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 37% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

You can download the forecast here 

How do the December Forecast numbers compare to actual numbers?  The table below shows the number of Hurricanes over the last six years.

YearDec ForecastActual
200284
200387
200479
2005614
200693
200776
   


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Marc DuboisUser is Offline
Adjuster
Anywhere USA/Canada
Member
Posts:136


12/09/2007 10:34 AM  
Why is it that forecasters are wrong so often and yet get to keep on predicting? Please give me a break but their batting average has been a source of consternation for a good number of people dependent on their accuracy to eat. As weather patterns are cyclical they'll get it right one of these years.

Marc Dubois
Executive General Adjuster
M.G.D. Claim Services Inc.
"Your Commercial Claims Solution"
Larry HardinUser is Offline
Adjuster
Oklahoma City, OK
Member
Posts:327


12/09/2007 3:28 PM  


I forcast that it's gonna rain on most of the USofA next year. I also forcast that there will be water and wind claims in most of the cities in the USofA next year.

I are one o' them perfesshionel prognosticators

Larry D Hardin
Larry WrightUser is Offline

Grand Bay (Mobile) Alabama
Member
Posts:54


12/09/2007 4:06 PM  
The average actual #s from previous years were 35% different from the forecasts. With those averages and a prediction of 7 hurricanes next year we could assume there will be between 4 and 10. Now that is really usefull information to someone I am sure. I am just not sure who that might be.

No one is absolutely worthless, at the very least you can serve as a bad example.
Jud GardnerUser is Offline

Daphne, AL
Member
Posts:136


12/09/2007 5:49 PM  

I think it's quite clear really, what this game is all about.  Winston Churchill often and precisely described the messy game of politics.  I'm certain he would be especially satisfied with the substitution of "Meteorology" for "Politics":

"Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

Rocke BakerUser is Offline

Michigan
Member
Posts:50


12/09/2007 8:55 PM  
As for me, IF and When it looks like a storm is going to hit then I'll begin to get hopeful. Not going to pay any attention to what any "expert" says. Otherwise, just keep on keeping on with whatever you are doing as there is nothing we can do to change any weather. If any type of storm hits, it hits.
Terry GuilloryUser is Offline

Member
Posts:21


12/09/2007 9:20 PM  
You just never know in this business when the call will come. Last year at this time, actually on Dec. 16th, I got a call and spent the next two months in Seattle working a windstom. It was cold, wet and I did not know there had even been a storm there. When you least expect it, it will be time to hit the road...Hope everyone get the chance to get some work this winter....
peter burchUser is Offline
Adjuster
where ever the winds blow
Member
Posts:180


12/09/2007 9:37 PM  

Just when we start to  talk about 08  it's time for 94L, could this be another TD, yes it could.


Still sliding down the razorblade of life.
Kevin SellersUser is Offline

Member
Posts:2


12/30/2007 2:08 PM  
Mother Nature is one of the reasons I wanted in this profession. She can be extremely violent, but at other times, be as gentle as a babys behind. The key to this job as with any other is being prepared when opportunity knocks and not be afraid to open the door. With the problems in the mid-west, our family knew that if I was needed to go out at Christmas time, I was gone. I love my family, and am willing to sacrifice some of my time in order to help those that need it.
As for hurricanes, I was extremely dissappointed this year, but also hoped for there to be no loss of life. This will be my hardest obstacle to deal with. I know I am prepared for the job, I just hope I dont have to deal with a family that has lost a family member.
Bob HarveyUser is Offline
Gold Member
California, Central Coast
Member
Posts:388


12/30/2007 2:20 PM  
I just hope I dont have to deal with a family that has lost a family member.

You will run into that more often just doing daily claims - fender benders + homeowners property losses.
In 17 years, I have done lot's of fatal car wrecks, fatal work comp invests, and a BBQ person in a house fire. People are more likely to lose a family member going to work than a Cat-5 hurricane, with the whole town talking about evacuation.

Remember, the day after Katrina CNN was broadcasting from the French Quarter about how they had been spared.  The storm eye was closer to the Mississippi border. Then the levee failed, and the people were trapped in attic's etc. You won't see something of that magnitude in your lifetime - but you will see fatal claims as a daily claim adjuster.

I was working flood claims near where the eye of Katrina hit, and had no fatal claims.  Virtually everyone I talked to had evacuated.  In the 9th ward, people didn't have cars, and the public transportation wasn't there for them.  That is not a normal scenario.  There is a photo in the adjuster gallery under "Katrina" that shows the spray paint on the front of the house "1 in attic". 

Adjusters that worked New Orleans will have those stories.  You can see some of the photos I just put in the gallery from Slidell to Covington, LA which was hit hard.  One house had 6 trees in the living room.  I have been looking at hurricanes since 1992 and never met a homeowner injured by hurricane - let alone fatal.

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