Here's one article on the subject and I'm looking for the link to another I read yesterday saying that reporter thought there could be a 40% increase above average activity next year-quite the opposite of the "lull" discussed in this report.

********

 

By Ken Kaye

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

(MCT)

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - Not a single hurricane hit land. No systems were named under the Greek alphabet. And October and November were blissfully serene.

This hurricane season, which ends Wednesday, "was as different as day and night," from last year's, said Robert Murray, a Boca Raton, Fla., retiree who in 2005 had to evacuate his home a few times. "It was really great."

Don't get used to it.

The slower season, with five hurricanes compared to 15 in 2005, was an aberration, says Colorado State University professor William Gray, a noted hurricane forecaster. He warned next year likely will be busy again because the Atlantic and Caribbean still have abnormally warm waters, the main ingredient that fuels storm activity.

"As best we can read, this is a temporary pause in active seasons. I expect our forecast for next year will call for a fairly active year," said Gray, who admits his initial forecast for the past season was over-inflated.

On the other hand, Stanley Goldenberg, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said it's possible this year was part of a lull that might continue for another year, or a "cycle within a cycle."

He said there have been previous instances where two- to three-year lulls have occurred within active eras. For instance, in terms of landfalls, 2001 and 2002 were slow years during the current era, which started in 1995. During that two-year stretch, only Hurricane Lili hit the U.S. coast.

Two primary factors tempered this hurricane season, experts say: The unexpected emergence of El Nino, the atmospheric condition that shreds storms, and frequent Saharan air outbreaks.

The outbreaks essentially are Sahara dust storms that get picked up by tropical waves and are carried from North Africa across the Atlantic Ocean. They act to dry out the atmosphere and choke storms of moisture.

"We usually get one or two Saharan air outbreaks that reach South Florida in the summer. And we had four or five this year, so that was unusual," said Jason Dunion, field program director of the Hurricane Research Division.

Further protecting the U.S. coast was a weakened Bermuda High, a high-pressure area in the western Atlantic; it allowed several storms to curve north and out to sea, including Hurricanes Florence, Gordon, Helene and Isaac.

Additionally, waters in the tropical Atlantic were about a half a degree cooler this year than last, said Phil Klotzbach, Gray's associate. What caused the water temperatures to cool is unknown, he said, but they still remained warm enough to spawn two Category 3 hurricanes, Gordon and Helene.

The overall result: For only the 11th year since 1945, no hurricanes hit the United States.

Nine named storms formed during the 2006 season, with the last one being Hurricane Isaac in early October. The long-term average is 11 named storms, six of them hurricanes, with two of those intense.

Only two tropical storms made U.S. landfall, Alberto and Ernesto, both of which hit Florida but left little damage. Ernesto went on to cause flooding to North Carolina and Virginia.

In last year's record-shattering season, 28 storms emerged. Five hurricanes pounded the U.S. coast, leaving about $150 billion in damage and almost 1,900 dead, most in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

The last tropical storm of the 2005 season, Zeta, didn't fizzle until early January. It was the sixth system named under the Greek alphabet, which had never before been required. In all, it was the most active, destructive season on record.

Ernesto was South Florida's sole threat this year. Forecasters predicted it would hit as a Category 1 hurricane with winds up to 90 mph and a potential rainfall of 15 inches. But after being ground down on the north coast of Cuba, it staggered ashore near Miami, producing only gusty weather and less than 2 inches of rain at the end of August.

It was an example of how intensity forecasts frequently are in error - and how that can result in major disruption, said Max Mayfield, outgoing director of the National Hurricane Center.

"I've already apologized to my wife and neighbors and everyone else who put up shutters," he said. "Believe me, I know, it's an inconvenience."

Mayfield, who plans to retire on Jan. 3, said steps are being taken to improve intensity forecasts.

For instance, a powerful new computerized forecasting model is to be employed on an experimental basis next season. Also, special Doppler radar units are being installed on hurricane hunter aircraft to feed the models with more precise atmospheric information, he said.

But he warns significant progress likely won't be made for several years.

"Intensity forecasting, especially the rapid intensification of hurricanes, is our number one priority," he said.

Another area where forecasting fell short, at least this year, was in the seasonal outlooks. Initially, NOAA meteorologists predicted up to 16 names storms, including up to 10 hurricanes would develop this year. Gray and Klotzbach forecast 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes.

"We were behind the curve," Gray conceded, saying he didn't anticipate that El Nino would strengthen in September.

El Nino is the warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean, producing strong wind shear.

Charles Tear, Palm Beach County director of emergency management, said this year's respite "gave people a chance to recoup from the last two years."

Yet Tony Carper, Broward County's director of emergency management, said residents should not let their guard down going into next year's season.

"It's a statistical certainty that a major hurricane will at some time hit South Florida," he said. "It could be next year, or it could be 10 years down the road. But it will happen again."

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© 2006 South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Thanks Debbie and Dave for the two articles. They make some great points that often get overlooked in the media noise at occurs around events like in 2004 and 2005. The trend is there and the fuel is there for strong hurricane seasons for the next several years. Just as to have fire you have to have fuel, oxygen and temperature so warmer water alone does not increase hurricane activity.

We know 2006 is going to be the best year that many adjusters have had in quite sometime due to purchasing patterns of early renewals so as to move more expenses into 2006 and their statements. These same adjusters said they suffered because the storms in their areas had decreased when the coastal areas were so active in 2004 and 2005. Those that wait for the “Big Ones” for one reason or another miss those 1,000 to 5,000 claim storms that can still provide solid and stable income since on a monthly bases there are many events around the country that do not get national news exposure. Vendors have options in the smaller events that often permit them to run with proven players only.

Here is the link to the study showing a 40% increase in activity for 2007-2011 I referred to in the initial post:

http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/PR_112706_2007Rates.asp

RMS Reaffirms Five-Year View of Increased Hurricane Activity in Atlantic Basin Newark, Calif. – November 22, 2006 – Risk Management Solutions (RMS) today reaffirmed its medium-term five-year view of landfalling hurricane risk for the period of 2007-2011. The company is projecting higher modeled annualized insurance losses by 40% on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast, and by 25-30% in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions relative to those derived using long-term 1900-2006 historical average hurricane frequencies. RMS first released this view of risk before the 2006 hurricane season, for the five-year period of 2006-2010. “As part of our annual review of medium-term landfall frequency in the Atlantic, RMS held its second expert elicitation in October 2006, presenting a range of statistical models to a panel of seven of the world’s leading hurricane scientists,” said Joshua Darr, director of model management at RMS. “This expert panel concluded that the forthcoming five-year period of hurricane landfall frequency would be very similar to our original five-year projection established last year.” A key driver of the current elevated view of landfalling hurricane risk is an increase of more than 30% in the modeled frequency of major (Saffir-Simpson Category 3-5) hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., to account for current elevated levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin that are expected to persist for at least the next five years. The increased frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, as observed since 1995, are driven by higher sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and by associated changes in atmospheric circulation. Mr. Darr added that the experts also reaffirmed that the “increase in activity of the most severe Category 3-5 hurricanes will be higher than the increase in Category 1-2 storms, based on the high likelihood of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.” This outlook was implemented into the RMS® U.S. and Caribbean Hurricane models as part of the May 2006 release of the RiskLink® and RiskBrowser® 6.0 catastrophe modeling platforms. While the forward-looking view of hurricane risk will not need to be changed in the spring 2007 release of RiskLink® and RiskBrowser® 7.0, there will be additional incremental updates for residual demand surge effects, continued advancements to storm surge modeling, and additional vulnerability classes. RMS will continue to monitor, publish, and apply the five-year forward-looking view of activity rates, in conjunction with convening an expert elicitation of leading hurricane climatologists on an annual basis.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061207/us_nm/hurricanes_forecast_dc

Forecaster predicts busy 2007 U.S. hurricane season

Thu Dec 7, 12:10 PM ET

In 2007 the trade winds, which blow westwards from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, will be weaker than normal, while the sea temperatures between west Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes form, will be warmer than normal, TSR said…..

"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Nino conditions from mid-September," TSR said…..

Last year was certainly a good year to remind us to either respect our elders or at least value a good lesson from history.

Thanks, Roy for the link.  I pulled together the December forecasts made by Dr. Gray's group dating back to 2004 and put the actual results side by side for comparison.  Also included, are the hyperlinks directing you to the original source:

The numbers are interesting and give much creedence to the following quote which was actually (satirically, perhaps?) included with Dr. Grays's 2004 Tropical Season Summary:

I thought the El Nino was going to decrease in 2007 in a recent forecast permitting a more active Atlantic hurricane season?

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2116873.ece

World faces hottest year ever, as El Niño combines with global warming

By Cahal Milmo Published: 01 January 2007

A combination of global warming and the El Niño weather system is set to make 2007 the warmest year on record with far-reaching consequences for the planet, one of Britain's leading climate experts has warned.

This thread should be locked. Our emotions are going to be on a roller coaster again this year. We all know the meteorologist do not even look outside before they predict the local weather. You can be a weatherman without a degree, experience or a license.

This was in the Dallas Morning News today on the front page.  Looks like same info Gale posted a few days ago.

British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters – and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record

ws.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/stories/010507dnintwarming.201de01.html

El Nino also can do some good. It tends to take the punch out of the Atlantic hurricane season by generating crosswinds that can rip the storms apart – good news for Florida's orange growers, for example

www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/stories/010507dnintwarming.201de01.html

Well, If our friend Max Mayfield has it right, we are in for a WORLD of hurt, and even he questions the Federal Respose Agencies:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/nation/epaper/2007/01/04/m1a_MAYFIELD_0104.html

Mat,

So young and yet so cynical!  The smart money is on those who learn to diversify.  Catadjusting is not just about hurricanes.  Since I signed up for the State Farm staff cat team after Hurricane Andrew hit (and never got sent to that one), my experience has been that hurricanes are generally short term work.  Katrina is the exception.  With that exception, most of my work has come from freeze work and wind/hail with more than a smattering of branch assist.  Diversification is like putting hurricane shutters on your career so that hurricanes (or rather the lack of hurricanes) does not permanently destroy your career.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/02/02/florida.storm/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7006338838

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/nation/4520804.html

Feb. 2, 2007, 6:26AM
Deadly storms sweep through central Fla.

TAVARES, Fla. — Severe thunderstorms tore through central Florida early Friday, damaging homes, causing power outages and killing at least one person, authorities said.

I suppose I came off a bit cynical.  It was more of a mocking of their predictions though.  This is how I plan my day:

Weather guy says there's going to be thunderstorms and be pooring down rain, I call for a tee time.

Weather guy says it's going to be clear skies, I cancel my tee time and know it's a better day for movies.

My comment about your cynicism was not a criticism, Mat.  As a matter of fact, it was a very astute observation on your part.

Case in point -- The 1997 to 1998 storm cycles (I  choose this because the 2006/2007 storm cycles are shaping up to be very similar to those two years).

Summer/Fall 1997 saw an El Nino formation off the Pacific coast.  This affected the Atlantic hurricane cycle and prevented formation of major hurricanes that might otherwise have made landfall along the east coast.  No hurricanes hit Florida.  Instead, a series of tornadoes hit Florida in January 1998 (sound familiar yet?  If not, check out the article posted by Gale above.) which hit heavily populated areas of Miami/Dade and Broward Counties. 

El Nino came ashore in California, causing widespread water damage during the winter of 1998.  A tornado hit hard on the upscale north side of Atlanta.  A series of smaller storms kept me busy around the country until the fall.  This included major hailstorms in Minneapolis and Oklahoma.

Fall 1998 brought in Hurricane Bonnie, which the weather channel spent a week telling us would be the worst hurricane since Andrew.  Bonnie came near shore, then turned and went north through the ocean without significant landfall.  Lots of water, very little wind.  It provided one week's work for me.  I was one of the lucky ones. 

When I was ready to leave Virginia Beach after one week, I called one of my vendors and was asked to go to Syracuse, NY.  I had no idea why.  There had been a blurb on weather.com about Syracuse, but certainly not the sort of coverage afforded Hurricane Bonnie.  I drove to Syracuse, which looks like a war zone after the 125 mph straight line winds had torn through it.  There had been no warning, so the weather channel had not been able to scare people for a week prior to the event.  In Syracuse I worked for 9 weeks.  I saw one farm with three full size barns.  One barn was picked up and dropped on a second barn, which exploded and destroyed the third barn with flying debris.  The house, 50 feet away, did not have a shingle out of place.  (Can we all say, "Downburst"?). 

At that point I began to notice the inverse relationship between the amount of news coverage and the amount of work provided by a storm.  With rare exceptions, like the Three Fates of 2005 (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma), this inverse relationship will hold true.  I did not hear a word of news coverage on the storms in Ohio or Indiana that kept me so busy last year.  I certainly heard enough about the hurricane season that wasn't, however.  I heard about how it was going to be the worst hurricane season ever (because of global warming) and about why we weren't getting any hurricanes (because of global warming).  The predictions were revised at least twice, and all the predictions were wrong.  They even moved the official beginning of the hurricane season from July 1 to June 1, all to herald an event which, like the millenial apocalypse, never came to pass.

You are right to be cynical about the media coverage.  It may well preserve your sanity in this business.

And now for a moment of reverence on this high holy day:

Punxatawny Phil, the one and only true weather prognosticating groundhog, on this day emerged from his den on Gobbler's Nob and did not see his shadow.

This signals an early spring.  Though the weather channel may be suspect, Punxatawny Phil is a meteorologist with which to be reckoned.

Break out the ladders, get ready for hail season, and keep a close eye on your teenage children.