|  | | Author | Messages | |
Larry Regan
Posts:56
 | | 09/30/2007 10:34 PM |
| After storm lull, scientists warn of red-flag October
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By ROBERT P. KING
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 30, 2007
So far, so quiet, so good.
But while Floridians bask in their second hurricane-free year in a row - knock on plywood - meteorologists warn that the threat from the tropics may be about to ramp up.October typically brings a shift in the tropics' steering winds, pushing hurricanes into Florida from the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean instead of the Atlantic.The western Caribbean still is loaded with the deep, abundant warm water that fueled Hurricanes Dean and Felix to Category 5 strength in August.The expected return of the La Niña global climate pattern, which encourages Atlantic hurricane formation, could keep the season humming well into November.Nobody is predicting a copy of the record-breaking 2005 season, which coughed up its last tropical storm on New Year's Eve. But the season could spawn something like Hurricane Wilma, which exploded near the Yucatan Peninsula before sweeping across Florida on Oct. 24 that year.The upshot: Floridians might keep eyeing storm maps and restocking their bottled-water supplies even after they've finished the Halloween candy."One or two more major hurricanes is very possible," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "I would think we'd have a high chance of a hurricane coming out of the Caribbean and possibly threatening Florida."Officially, the Atlantic basin's hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with peak activity hitting in mid-September. But that doesn't mean Floridians can relax."October is the biggest threat for the state of Florida - more than August, more than September," Landsea said.Similar warnings came this month from Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, who said they expect October and November to produce five named storms, more than double the average. They predicted that two of the storms would become hurricanes, one of them major.Besides Wilma, past October surprises include Hurricane Irene, which swamped Palm Beach County in 1999, and Hurricane Opal, which tore up the Panhandle in 1995.
One of the Atlantic basin's deadliest storms on record struck in October 1998, when Hurricane Mitch killed more than 11,000 people in Honduras and Nicaragua. It later swept through Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast as a tropical storm.This year's storms have largely spared Florida, though the state had brushes with Subtropical Storm Andrea in May, Tropical Storm Barry in June and Tropical Depression 10 on Sept. 21.But elsewhere, this year has set at least one milestone: Dean and Felix were the first two Atlantic hurricanes to make landfall as Category 5 storms during the same season, according to records dating to 1851.The 13 named storms this year, including four hurricanes, are more than the long-term average of 10 storms a season.This season "is going to be ranking as one of the most historic," said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for the New York-based company Weather 2000, which produces forecasts for the energy industry and other clients. "What we've been warning our clients is that the waters have been phenomenally warm in the Gulf of Mexico" and other regions nearby, Schlacter said. "We kind of use the phrase 'We expect to be surprised.' ... That should be the expected thing, for storms to explode."Water warmer than 80 degrees is potent fuel for hurricanes, and Landsea said it's more than 100 feet deep in the western Caribbean. That means passing hurricanes keep stirring up warm water - not the cold, discouraging water they might churn elsewhere in the Atlantic."We know that the western Caribbean is a source of essentially unlimited energy for hurricanes to tap into," Landsea said.
Schlacter said he hopes people won't take false comfort from storms this year that failed to meet some predictions.
"October is just as dangerous a month as August is," he said, "and it should be in people's minds."
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| stephanie wells
Dallas, Texas
Posts:64
| | 09/30/2007 10:45 PM |
| I'll believe it when I see it. So far, it's a bust. A big one. | | | |
| Forrest Taylor
Posts:15
| | 10/01/2007 1:36 PM |
| Does anyone else feel like we should have had a funeral for Karen and Melissa?
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| Michael Brennan
GA
Posts:6
| | 10/01/2007 6:19 PM |
| Forrest,
You may be on to something there. The wind shear really treated these poor little ole storms very badly! These storms where out there just minding their own business. What a shame! | | | |
| Nick Angelides
Posts:24
| | 10/01/2007 11:28 PM |
| | i had high hopes for karen too...i remember seeing her when she was a newborn...just about to open her eye.....lol | | | |
| Larry Regan
Posts:56
| | 10/02/2007 1:10 PM |
| They just said on channel 5 news that Dr Gray has downgraded his forecast to 4 storms in Oct & November and 4 names storms and 2 hurricanes and 1 major. | | | |
| Roy Cupps
CatAdjuster.org
Texarkana, TX
Posts:327
| | Larry Regan
Posts:56
| | 10/02/2007 9:59 PM |
| Who said October was a slow month???
Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed October 1-15. There are very few storms forming off the coast of Africa during this period.
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| Roy Cupps
CatAdjuster.org
Texarkana, TX
Posts:327
| | Rob Banks
Posts:83
| | 10/03/2007 8:48 AM |
| Posted By Roy Cupps on 10/03/2007 7:42 AM Out of the data in the image above we had 9 hurricanes make US landfall during the period 1950 - 2006, I have them listed on the Cane page.
How about them apples!  | |
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