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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
northwest/north-central Texas this afternoon to southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana tonight.
A progressive, split-flow pattern will persist in mid/upper levels
this period. The main feature for this forecast is a synoptic-scale
cyclone initially centered over south-central/southeastern CO, with
trough south-southwestward over far west TX to Chihuahua. By 00Z,
the associated 500-mb low should move to the OK/KS border region
between ICT-GAG, with trough southward across west-central/southwest
TX. The mid/upper low should reach northeastern OK overnight, with
the trough becoming somewhat negatively tilted, extending across the
Arklatex and TX/LA border area by 12Z.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near PVW,
with cold front arching southwestward across the Llano Estacado and
over extreme southeastern NM. A warm front was drawn southeastward
across the SAT area then eastward over the upper TX coast and Gulf
waters south of LA. The low should move east-southeastward across
northwest/north-central TX today as the warm front shifts/redevelops
northward across the Hill Country and into parts of north-central
TX. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from the low over north-
central TX southwestward across parts of the Hill country to the
lower Pecos Valley. By 12Z, the cold front will have crossed most
of southeast and south-central TX, extending southwestward from the
low near the LA/AR state line.
Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon over portions of northwest/
north-central TX, in a zone of maximized low-level convergence/lift,
close to the surface low. This activity should move east-
southeastward to eastward across parts of north-central or central
TX through the rest of the afternoon into the evening, offering the
potential for hail and isolated severe gusts. The initial activity
will be supported by a pocket of diurnal/warm-sector diabatic
heating and related boundary-layer destabilization, behind an area
of clouds, precip and non-severe thunderstorms now moving across
parts of OK and north TX. That increasing low-level instability,
along with surface dew points generally upper 50s to mid 60s F, will
be juxtaposed with cooling temperatures aloft as areas of DCVA pass
through the southeastern quadrant of the mid/upper cyclone.
Forecast soundings accordingly depict MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg over
parts of north-central TX in the 21Z-00Z time frame. Effective-
shear magnitudes around 45-55 kt and curved low-level hodographs
suggest potential for a supercell or two in the first few hours,
followed by upscale development of a near-frontal convective band
that would cross parts of north-central and east TX, reaching
western LA overnight. Isolated severe hail and gusts will be
possible in that convective band as well.
Coverage and boundary timing/placement uncertainties with respect to
the convection are the main concerns precluding greater
unconditional severe probabilities at this time, but a small area of
greater risk may be added as the event gets closer and presumably
better-focused on the mesoscale.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunderstorms are possible Monday from the Tennessee Valley through
the Florida Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
across the central High Plains. No severe weather is currently
Mature cyclone likely centered near the MS/AL/TN border intersection
at the beginning of the period is expected to only move slightly
northward throughout the day. Occluded surface low associated with
this cyclone will remain largely in place while a weak triple-point
low drifts eastward across southern AL and into southeastern SC.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along and north of the occluded front between these two lows as well
as along the surface trough extending southwestward from the more
southern low. Convection on the surface trough will likely gradually
weaken as it becomes increasingly displaced from the parent system
amidst only modest instability. Strong low-level flow is possible
across portions of eastern GA and southeastern SC but, given the
anticipated frontal position and moist, weak lapse rate profiles
over the area, any thunderstorms in this region will be likely
elevated and weak.
Farther west, a strong shortwave trough will move slowly from the
northern Rockies into the central Rockies. Progression of this
shortwave (as well as an attendant surface low) will encourage a
southeastward surge of cold air from the northern Rockies/northern
High Plains. Airmass ahead of this front will be relatively dry but
a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer will likely still support
modest destabilization and the potential for isolated thunderstorms
as the cold front moves through.
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CARTERET
CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES
LENOIR MARTIN NASH
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO
PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLES CITY GREENSVILLE ISLE OF WIGHT
PRINCE GEORGE SOUTHAMPTON SURRY
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
935 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern North Carolina
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 935 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms over central NC will
track northeastward across the watch area. Very strong winds just
above the surface will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts or
brief tornadoes along the leading edge of the squall line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC
to 15 miles south southeast of Jacksonville NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 54...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 21040.
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